Social Media Picks Oscar Winners (Maybe)

There’s nothing like a bold prediction to force you into a humiliating walk-back later, and I am all about humiliation, so here’s my forecast for the Oscars: Best Picture goes to Lincoln, based on its popularity with masses, as determined via social media, and despite the fact that the Academy generally ignores their feelings.

The measurement comes via social media firm Rosetta’s POEM service, which allows markets to incorporate social media sentiment into online strategy. POEM tracked sentiment about movies on blogs, Facebook, news sites and Twitter over the last month. Ranking this year’s movies by the volume of positive and negative online chatter, Rosetta places Lincoln first with a score of 1.84, just edging out Argo at 1.71. Coming in a distant third is Zero Dark Thirty, with a score of 1.01, followed by Silver Linings Playbook, at 0.91.

According to Rosetta the “most hated” film, despite its box office success, is Les Miserables, followed by Zero Dark Thirty, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Django Unchained.

Rosetta isn’t the only social media measurement firm flashing some predictive analysis out there for the Oscars. Ad Age reports that Taykey, which tracked the volume of online sentiment about the contenders from February 1-19, chose Les Miserables for best film, Denzel Washington for best leading actor, and Jennifer Lawrence for best leading actress.

Meanwhile General Sentiment, which tracked online sentiment from January 20-February 19, chose Argo for best film, Daniel Day-Lewis for best leading actor, and Emanuelle Riva for best leading actress.

But what I really want to know is, who do the masses favor for best film editing? And what about best sound mixing?

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