Mag Circulation Declines Hit Bottom, Begin To Stabilize

Describing it as a "light at the end of the tunnel," a top Wall Street securities firm Friday released an analysis of Audit Bureau of Circulations data indicating that circulation trends for the major publicly held consumer magazine publishing groups appear to have stabilized.

The analysis by the equities research team at Merrill Lynch shows that subscription sales for the group actually climbed 0.2 percent during the first half of 2004 vs. the first half of 2003. During the same period, single copy sales fell 6.6 percent, contributing to an overall circulation decline of 0.7 percent for the six-month period.

Despite the pronounced dip in newsstand sales, Merrill Lynch analyst Karl Choi noted that it nonetheless represents an improvement from recent ABC reporting periods.

"Among the companies that we track, single copy declines reached a peak in the first half of 2003 (-11.2 percent), but have improved a bit since then to the 6.6 percent decline posted in first half 2004," wrote Choi, adding, however, "The 0.2% gain in subscriptions in first half 2004, however, was the smallest since the second half of 2000. Overall, the 0.7% decline in total circulation in first half 2004 was similar to that of second half 2003 (-0.9 percent) and better than first half 2003, which was down 1.3%."

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The analysis shows that five major titles missed their rate bases during the period, including Hachette Filipacchi's American Photo and Woman's Day, Martha Stewart Living, Meredith's Better Homes & Garden's American Patchwork & Quilting, and Primedia's Motor Cyclist

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