Relative Demand Erodes For All Media Except One - Guess Which?

What a difference a year makes. One year ago, the mood of media planning and buying executives heading into a quadrennial Summer Olympics and presidential election year was decidedly expansive. A year later, as they head out of the boom year and confront expectations of more moderate levels of spending during 2005, they appear to have grown more conservative. At least those are the media buying expectations of members of MediaPost's advisory panel.

In September 2004 only 37 percent of the panelists said their demand for buying media had increased relative to the same time a year earlier, down seven points from the percentage of those who felt that way in September 2003. The percentage that feel their demand has remained "the same" slipped modestly, but the percentage who believe their demand has decreased fell eight points.

Moreover, demand has plummeted in terms of expectations for purchasing all but one medium, online. Relative demand for online media, in fact, has surged year over year, with 70 percent of this year's respondents citing an increase vs. only 54 percent a year ago.

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Media Buying Sentiment: September 2004 Vs. September 2003


2004 2003 Change
Increased: 37% 44% -7 points
Stayed The Same: 48% 49% -1 point
Decreased: 15% 7% +8 points

Source: MediaPost and InsightExpress survey of media planners and buyers. 2004 Base = 225; 2003 Base = 226 respondents.

Not surprisingly, demand for online media inventory is greatest among media planning and buying executives that are primarily involved in purchasing online media, but demand also appears acute among so-called "traditional" media planners and buyers, 63 percent of whom cited a boost in demand for online media.

Traditional media buying executives were also generally more upbeat in their perceived demand for traditional media, especially for cable, network TV, outdoor and newspapers, than the online media buying executives.

September 2004 Ad Demand Index


How Ad Demand Has Changed Relative To The Same Point A Year Ago

----Increased---- -Stayed The Same- ----Decreased---
Online/Trad/Total Online/Trad/Total Online/Trad/Total
Online 83% 63% 70% 14% 34% 27% 3% 3% 3%
Cable 36% 50% 42% 51% 37% 45% 13% 13% 13%
Radio 30% 45% 36% 55% 40% 48% 15% 15% 16%
Outdoor 24% 37% 29% 55% 48% 53% 21% 15% 18%
Magazines 28% 31% 26% 55% 52% 57% 17% 17% 17%
Network TV 12% 21% 17% 62% 60% 61% 26% 19% 22%
Newspapers 15% 25% 20% 53% 48% 52% 32% 27% 28%
All Media 35% 41% 37% 48% 45% 48% 17% 14% 15%

Source: September 2004 MediaPost and InsightExpress survey of media planners and buyers. Base = 225 respondents. Online = Agency executives primarily involved in planning and buying online media. Traditional = Agency executives primarily involved in planning and buying traditional media.
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