Commentary

2005 Predictions: More of the Same

This is the time of year when people will inevitably start asking questions like, "What are your predictions for 2005?" This is the time of year when I write a column on my predictions for the coming 365 days in order to stave off the questions before they're asked, but in thinking about the question this year I've come to a few different conclusions, none of which will sound all that new if you've been reading my column for the last 104 weeks.

My first prediction for next year is the continued consolidation of technology companies. What we saw last week with Viewpoint and Unicast is a sign of things to come. Whether it is to ward off financial difficulties from some of the smaller vendors, or whether it is to combat or join the growth of the Doubleclick Rich Media Toolset, consolidation of companies based on realistic valuations is certain to continue.

It's a simplification of an overly complex landscape and one that most agencies will applaud. Pricing is not an issue anymore, nor is competitive differentiation, so the final outcome is consolidation and more implementation of rich media in standard campaign efforts.

advertisement

advertisement

The second prediction that I have is that branding and direct response (DR) will continue to merge. We refer to the model of advertising that has arisen as brand response, where the primary and secondary responsibilities of marketing vehicles will be some combination of brand metrics and DR metrics, but ALL forms of media are going to continue to adopt this model.

Interactive has paved the way, and as larger budgets are reallocated from less accountable media (such as broadcast television) into more accountable media (such as interactive or direct marketing), we will see more adoption of this and other similar models for planning and optimization.

The future of advertising rests solely on proving that your advertising works. Gone are the days of "I can prove that half of my advertising works, I just don't know which half." The market no longer tolerates wasted dollars and more and more marketers understand that the development of a brand is a transitional element to improving sales or market share.

My third prediction for 2005 is that the lines will continue to blur between advertising and content. As more tools enter the world that allows the consumer to customize their view of the world, the customers will continue to filter out much of the "traditional" elements of marketing. Whether it is via TiVo, pop-up blockers, new browsers, or other such technologies, the consumer is going to be in more control of their media experience.

As a result, marketers will be forced to pursue more subtle means of reaching the target. Advertiser-driven content will continue to grow. Product placement will continue to be important. Content-sponsorship or integration will become more important. It may not revert to "Texaco Star Theatre" again, but it will go in the direction of Video On Demand and other tools where the user selects the content they want to see.

Marketers will find more ingenious ways to expose them to messaging that is seen, heard, processed, and understood. Imagine "The Tonight Show featuring Conan O'Brien" where you select the guests you want to see, select the order of the commercials, the type of commercials you want to see and what time the show will be on for you.

Like I said at the beginning of this week's column, these are not new ideas. These are the basics. This is the direction things are going, and you need to stay focused on the end goal (but enjoy the journey to get there as well).

Next story loading loading..