• by Ross Fadner , January 5, 2004

Ever since the Recording Industry Association of America started prosecuting unsuspecting college students with copyright infringement last September, significant declines in music downloading and file sharing have been evident, especially among college students and broadband users.

According to a new nationwide phone survey of 1,358 Internet users from November 18-December 14 by the Pew Internet Project (PIP), the percentage of online Americans who are downloading music files on the Internet has dropped by half. Furthermore, 20 percent of those who have discontinued illegal downloads of music files say they have done so because of the recent lawsuits.

Overall, the PIP data shows that the approximate number of music file downloaders has fallen to 18 million (14 percent of all online users) from the 35 million (29 percent) high point recorded during a series of PIP surveys last spring.

Likewise, comScore Media Metrix data shows significant declines in the number of people with peer-to-peer file sharing applications on their desktops. From November 2002 to November 2003, among the four major file sharing programs sampled in the PIP/comScore report, KaZaa's user base declined 15 percent, WinMX declined 25 percent, and BearShare lost 9 percent, while Grokster lost 59 percent of their overall user base.

So where have all the prosecution-weary file sharers gone? Well, increasingly, to paid online music services, according to comScore. In November 2003, 3.2 million Americans visited the recently revamped and repented for Napster.com. Apple's iTunes, which recently expanded its service to the PC in October, also drew 2.7 million new Windows-based users in November.

The percentage of file sharers of all media has also dropped since the RIAA lawsuits. In a June 2003 PIP survey, 28 percent of users conceded to having shared media files. In a similar survey conducted in November-December 2003, the number dropped 8 percentage points to 20 percent of Internet users sharing media files.

PIP Director and report author Lee Rainie believes that a number of factors have made the drop in file sharers who say they share music or other types of media files less pronounced than the drop in music downloading.

"This may reflect the large amount of media attention focused on the recording industry's attempts specifically to curb music downloading and sharing," Rainie said, "while efforts to target those who circulate copyrighted images or programs have been less visible."

"Additionally," he continued, "There may be a fraction of Internet users who are simply less likely to admit either downloading music or sharing files due to the negative media portrayal of the activity."

While the factors contributing to the declines in illegal file sharing are many and varied, almost every facet of the music downloading world has been affected, according to the report.

The steepest declines in illegal file sharing, in fact, have been among its most prolific and persistent perpetrators. Since May '03, the number of college students who download copyrighted music has fallen from 56 percent to 24 percent. Among broadband users, 41 percent were downloading music illegally in May, and now that number has fallen to 23 percent. The percentage of young adults aged 18-29 also dropped from 52 percent to 26 percent, while the number of Internet veterans of three years or more declined from 30 percent to 15 percent.

Despite the fact that the RIAA can only prosecute a tiny fraction of those who have perpetrated copyright laws, the proactive decision to do so and the media coverage generated by the lawsuits have clearly deterred a significant amount of would-be perpetrators from downloading copyrighted music.