• by Sean Hargrave , Staff Writer, February 1, 2016

Is the digital marketing industry a dead man walking? It's an intriguing question which is annoyingly asked today by Campaign without being answered or referenced again in the article that accompanies the eye-catching headline. The ABC Interaction 2016 conference last week in London was designed to look toward the challenges of the year ahead. From what I can read, the usual statements were made -- but I can't see anywhere a conclusion from anyone quoted that digital marketing truly is the dead man walking, as the headline writer asks.

It's a shame because to my mind, there could be something in it. Perhaps not so much a dead man walking as a sick patient who needs a radical intervention. Amidst all the talk of stuff we already know -- ads need to engage, not get in the way; there's too many of them, etc -- there was no brave forecast. It's what always troubles me about these conferences and the reporting of them. People say the same things, nobody really makes a conclusion, and then everyone meets up again and the repeat button is hit.

With digital display, it's probably too difficult to make a firm call because the billions of dollars that go into the channel beggar belief when, depending on whose figures you read, half could potentially go on un-viewable space, be blocked or fall prey to ad fraud. When there are such potential problems, one is left wondering why the money still rolls in.

These issues have given rise to the ad-tech revolution, which can measure viewability and hopefully cut down on fraud but can also allow brands to go direct to market without a media agency involved. The result is brands wondering whether agencies bring as much value to the mix as their bills would suggest they think they do -- and how much is going on media, how much on ad-tech guys the brand could just go to direct?

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We're on the verge of several things happening here. Transparency questions and the tools now being available for brands to use themselves will mean that some will forge their own destiny, opting to use agencies as consultants that steer them on the right path rather than executing campaigns as well. Many will not, preferring to leave agencies to do what they do best, albeit with some serious discussions over margins and transparency.

What must also happen is a challenge to the dominance of display as brands seek to be in the message on a Web page and not at its edges crying out for attention it very rarely gets. That means going native both in text and video. It's a big ask of brands, to suddenly be front and centre with content users want to engage with, rather than pumping out banner ads. However, what can be more worthwhile than a brand asking itself what its customer need and how they can be a part of that?

So in my mind, I've been forecasting the demise of digital display for quite some time now, but every year its figures just go up and up. It just somehow seems to defy logic, or at least keep inflating an ad-spend balloon which I suspect will come crashing back to earth when the next downturn happens.

Perhaps the more accurate forecast will be that brands are going to realise less is more. The big spenders are already consolidating agencies to make things simpler and the better publishers are realising their readers are far better served with responsible, unobtrusive advertising which then becomes far more noticeable because spots aren't overshadowing one another -- the background ads The Drum runs are a good example of this. Part of the less is more will be to spend more budget on getting within the editorial flow, reaching fewer people for possibly more budget but with greater impact.

That's what I see as the route ahead. Digital display, or at least the arrangements that open up the channel will be overhauled by many, but it will carry on despite the ills that beset it -- more an injured man limping than a dead man walking. The big leaps will take place in front and centre, in native and social -- where brands can see what they're getting and are challenged to build campaigns around the customer, not around whatever message they think should be ignored in banners sprayed around the web.

It's a return to deeper thinking, creative collaboration and accountability of traditional channels reimagined in digital form, rather than the spray and pray digital display can serve up.