How Email Metrics Foretold Indiana's Election Results

Donald Trump has the highest email engagement rates -- but Democrats still handily defeat Republicans in email marketing strategy and reach, according to new data from Return Path.

Trump’s primary win in Indiana -- and the consequent ending of both John Kasich's and Ted Cruz’s presidential campaigns -- place him as the final GOP candidate in the field. While many may express shock that Trump will represent the Republican Party in the national election, his email marketing engagement rates may have predicted his success.

Trump has consistently had the highest email read rate out of the GOP field, according to Return Path, with an average 16% read rate in April and 24% read rate in March.

Undecided subscribers who registered for multiple candidates’ newsletters also favored Trump -- with Trump’s campaign outperforming Cruz, with an 88% higher read rate among overlapping audiences.

Cruz’s open rates have remained extremely low during his entire candidacy, hovering at 10% with no improvement. Kasich had a small boost toward the end of his campaign, with open rates jumping from 9% to 12% in April.

The data is derived from Return Path’s Consumer Network of over 2 million subscriber emails in its data cloud, which the data solutions and marketing provider has been analyzing throughout the presidential election. 

Return Path has permission to process and analyze the emails their panelists receive, providing the company with a database of insights into customer behavior and email engagement.

“Trump has the highest engagement rates overall and the highest read rate overall,” says Tom Sather, senior director of research at Return Path. “What’s interesting is that his emails are actually very tame and straightforward, in contrast to his campaign. His emails purely focus on mobilizing people that will vote for him, and then getting them out to events. He doesn’t ask for any donations.” 

Sather says that Trump sends emails less frequently, which indicates that subscribers are more likely to open the emails that they do receive. Trump also has the smallest email marketing subscriber list, likely because he isn’t a career politician. 

Trump also outperformed his GOP rivals in email deliverability, with 79% of his emails reaching its intended inbox. In contrast, the email deliverability rates of Cruz and Kasich were 45% and 37%, respectively.  

Bernie Sanders’ victory in Indiana may likewise be reflected in the high growth rate of his email subscriber list. 

Sanders has historically trailed, but recently surpassed Hillary Clinton in email subscription numbers, says Sather.

Return Path estimates that Sanders’ email list is now 20% larger than Clinton’s, but 13% of Sanders email subscribers also subscribe to email updates from Clinton. Clinton has a higher engagement rate among overlapping audiences by 12%.

“He has a big edge on momentum, but she’s getting them to actually act,” says Sather. 

Overall, Democrats use email marketing significantly more than their Republican foes and Clinton and Sanders both have higher levels of email volume, segmentation and deliverability rates. This is likely due to President Obama’s highly successful email marketing campaign in 2012.  

Democrats significantly outpace Republicans in email deliverability, with both the Sanders and Clinton email marketing campaigns averaging an 88% deliverability rate.

Sather asserts that Sanders’ and Clinton’s read rates are likely negatively affected by the high volume of email they send per week and sometimes even per day.

 

 

 

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