Commentary

LinkedIn Sold, Is Twitter Next?

Microsoft’s acquisition of professional social network LinkedIn for $26.2 billion is shaking up the digital media universe, leaving many industry watchers asking who’s next. Indeed, all kinds of tie-ups previously considered implausible now seem less far-fetched, and all eyes are on one company in particular: Twitter.

LinkedIn and Twitter are, of course, very different kinds of social networks in a number of important ways. LinkedIn is a bit staid and, if I may say, boring, which makes sense because everyone is on their best corporate behavior. Twitter, by contrast, is a freewheeling and frequently offensive place. On the business side, LinkedIn has built up a substantial subscription business in areas like recruitment, setting it apart from virtually every other social network, including Twitter, which rely solely on advertising.

However there are number of broad similarities. Both founded over a decade ago, LinkedIn and Twitter have carved out a niche distinct from Facebook but must now deal with the fact that it is an appreciably smaller niche, and likely to remain so as growth slows dramatically.

LinkedIn’s total user base grew 19% from 364 million in the first quarter of 2015 to 433 million in the first quarter of 2016, but only a quarter of these are active monthly users; here the network posted slower growth, increasing 9% from 97 million to 106 million over the same period.

Twitter also boasts an impressive user base on paper, with 1.3 billion registered users, but like LinkedIn most of these are not active. Zeroing in on active users, the microblogging platform edged up from 302 million in the first quarter of 2015 to 320 million in the first quarter of 2016, for a 6% increase. A tie-up with an established tech company could give Twitter an opportunity to juice growth through platform integrations.

The two networks also face similar financial issues. Last year LinkedIn posted a loss of $166 million on revenues of $2.99 billion, the latter figure up 35% from the previous year. Meanwhile Twitter posted a $250 million loss in 2015, on revenues of $2.22 billion, the latter figure up 59% from the previous year. Putting the resources of a big, profitable tech company behind Twitter would remove unrelenting shareholder pressure to achieve profitability in the near term, allowing the company to focus on long-term strategic growth.

Last but certainly not least is what the social networks have to offer a buyer. In one fell swoop Microsoft picks up an established community of business professionals allowing it to map out and better understand the market for its own services. It also picks up a major publishing platform with a huge amount of content and – all things Microsoft has struggled to achieve, with limited success, in the past.

Likewise, Twitter remains unique as a forum for the thoughts, opinions, and reactions of public figures and newsmakers, including politicians, celebrities, and business leaders, as well as less glorified types like journalists and – ugh – bloggers. Drawing on these strengths, Twitter is also working to reinvent itself as a platform for breaking news and live events – also a content and publishing play, somewhat like LinkedIn.

So will Google buy Twitter? Only time will tell!

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