• by Philip Rosenstein , Staff Writer, September 7, 2016

Both the Democratic and Republican parties, in light of a higher likelihood of split-ticket voting on the November 8, 2016, ballot, increasingly aim to pin opposition candidates to the top of the ticket.

With Trump and Clinton at record likability lows this cycle, the strategy makes sense. While the presidential candidates are not exciting the majority in their own parties, the question of splitting ballots, or split-ticket voting, is still up in the air. That raises hope for candidates who see electoral success impacted by their party's presidential nominee.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has released ads in this vein against Evan Bayh, the former Governor and U.S. Senator from Indiana, now running again for the Senate.

“His D.C. charitable foundation helped finance the Clinton Foundation, but cut off contributions to local charities he once backed, stiffing Hoosiers who suffer to pad Clinton’s slush fund,” declares the anti-Bayh ad.

The DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) has taken a similar approach in Ohio, where former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is trying to unseat Sen. Rob Portman. A recent ad funded by the DSCC asks voters: “We all know what Donald Trump has said about women, so how can Rob Portman still support him?”

These strategies are being used elsewhere in the country throughout congressional races.

The efforts by both parties to tie candidates to their respective presidential nominees lends weight to a higher likelihood of voters splitting their ballots. For example, while in RealClearPolitics’ Ohio average Clinton leads Trump by 3.3 points, Rob Portman is maintaining a strong lead over Strickland in Senate race polling.

Interestingly, as Portman’s lead over Strickland has risen, so has the Republican Senator’s outreach to Democratic voters. Campaigning at Clinton and Kaine rallies would lead one to believe that Portman, despite what the DSCC ad may suggest, wants his state to vote Clinton, banking on Democrats splitting their tickets.

Sen. Portman and other endangered members of Congress are hoping that voters change the pattern we’ve seen in recent elections. In 2012, only 26 of 435 congressional districts picked a representative of a different party than the presidential candidate that carried the vote.

Ohio, in its own right, has not split a ticket between president and senator since 1988. Sen. Portman sees something different happening this cycle.

Odds are looking good for GOP down-ballot candidates. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll found that 32% of Clinton voters were “very likely” to split their tickets, with another 20% “somewhat” likely to do so.

Groups with the highest percentage of voters expected to toe the party line up and down the ballot include African Americans (42%), Republicans (37%) and “very conservative voters" (36%).