• by Erik Sass  @eriksass1, September 2, 2005

For years, network TV executives have said hit shows are all about the water cooler talk. Now a top media buying shop is seeking to harness blogs--the online equivalent of water cooler talk--as a tool for predicting what TV shows will succeed. If the method--dubbed PropheSEE by media agency Initiative Media--is accurate, then NBC's "The Apprentice: Martha Stewart" has the best chance of, well, not getting fired.

Culling conversations about TV shows from more than 15 million blogs and online discussion group between May and July, Initiative has given the new reality show a buzz index of 13.7 percent. If that were to translate directly into a Nielsen rating, the show would indeed be a success by today's prime-time standards.

Stacey Lynn Koerner, the executive vice president and director of global research integration at Initiative is willing to bet it does, and has recommended the agency's buyers bet their clients TV ad budgets on its accuracy.

"In the past, we would have had to do ethnographic research or focus group research to get at this kind of information," Koerner said Thursday after Initiative released results of its findings for the new prime-time season. "And in any of that, there's any number of biases that can hurt your data--in the way you ask the question, or just the fact that you're in the room."

Instead of relying on such research and the hunches of media buyers and researchers, Koerner says the system brings a level of rigor and predictability to the science of picking new TV shows that is new to Madison Avenue, probing online discussion on everything from attitudes toward plot developments, the loyalty or dislike for particular characters, and a variety of other opinions.

Based on that analysis, new UPN series "Everybody Hates Chris" has the next strongest shot at success, based on a buzz index of 9.0. If that were to translate directly into Nielsen ratings, it would be the biggest hit ever on the fledgling Viacom network (see table below).

As important as it is as a tool for predicting the success of new shows, Koerner says Initiative hopes to use the new research tool in other important ways. By understanding the relationship between audiences and TV programs, she believes the agency can create a less intrusive strategy for ad deployment.

"We encourage our clients not to disrupt [the viewing] experience, but enable it. So you sponsor online gaming content, or you have adjacent interviews with relevant stars of those shows--things like that," she explains.

Not everyone agrees with the exactitude of Koerner's vision. Brad Adgate, senior vice president and director of research at rival media shop Horizon Media, expresses some skepticism about the real predictive value of a buzz-based research tool.

"I think there are a lot of factors that go into the success of a TV show," Adgate warns. "TV shows are impacted by a lot of other considerations--time period, lead-in, and of course, do people actually like the show after they see it the first time?"

Adgate continues: "A lot of people will watch the first episode, but then the audience dwindles rapidly. Down the road, there are many other variables that are going to influence a show's actual success."

Fall TV "Buzz" Factors
Actors	Program Name	Net	% Buzz
Martha Stewart	The Apprentice: Martha Stewart	NBC	13.7
Chris Rock	Everybody Hates Chris	UPN	9.0
Jennifer Love Hewitt	Ghost Whisperer	CBS	7.6
Geena Davis	Commander in Chief	ABC	6.4
Jason Lee	My Name is Earl	NBC	5.5
Stuart Townsend	The Night Stalker	ABC	2.8
Freddie Prinze Jr	Freddie	ABC	2.6
Amy Grant	Three Wishes	NBC	2.5
Jensen Ackles	Supernatural	WB	2.3
Jared Tristan Padalecki	Supernatural	WB	2.3
Alyson Hannigan	How I Met Your Mother	CBS	2.2

Source: Initiative Media's PropheSEE research, culled from online blogs/discussions between May and July.