Commentary
Overall Ad Spending Up for 2002
- by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, February 18, 2002
According to the full-year forecast released by CMR, ad spending is expected to rise 1.5 percent in 2002, up to $96.1 billion from an estimated $94.6 billion in 2001, David Peeler, president and CEO of CMR, said "The events of September 11 coupled with the state of our economy certainly accelerated advertising's continued decline for the remainder of the year. As our nation emerges from recession, we believe the worst is behind us and expect to see a slight industry rebound by the onset of the third quarter of 2002."
Overall, 2001 was a lot weaker than many expected. In 2000, total ad spending across all media was $104.5 billion, according to CMR. Early estimates by CMR indicate that full-year ad spending for 2001 will be down 9.4 percent to $94.6 billion, the worst year-over-year showing within the past ten years.
The CMR report shows that spending will continue to be soft through the first half of the year, but much less than those seen in the third and fourth quarters of 2001. The advertising industry expects a modest boost from upcoming major events, such as the Winter Olympics. CMR expects that the market will begin to rebound beginning with third quarter of 2002.
2001 versus 2002 Quarterly Growth Trends
Percentage Change
| 1st Quarter 2001 | -4.1% |
| 2nd Quarter 2001 | -6.4% |
| 3rd Quarter 2001 | -12.1% |
| 4th Quarter 2001 | -14.4% (e) |
| 1st Quarter 2002 | -5.4% (e) |
| 2nd Quarter 2002 | -3.3% (e) |
| 3rd Quarter 2002 | 3.8% (e) |
| 4th Quarter 2002 | 10.9% (e) |
CMR predicts spending increases in 2002 for all major media, with Internet advertising leading the way, and says that the upcoming elections in November may drive a stronger increase for local media, especially for spot television and radio advertising.
Growth Estimates for 2002
by Media Growth Estimate
| Network TV | 2.0% |
| Spot TV | 2.5% |
| Cable TV | 1.1% |
| Syndication | 1.1% |
| Magazines | 0.6% |
| Newspapers | 3.1% |
| Outdoor | 1.8% |
| Internet | 8.8% |
You can find out more here.
Jack Loechner is the Editor of The Center for Media Research's daily Research Brief. You can reach him at jack@mediapost.com.