• by Wayne Friedman , November 14, 2005

Not all broadcast and cable programmers are thinking along the same lines concerning DVR viewership--which for many means adding in DVR viewership of up to seven days to current Nielsen program ratings. One cable network, the Hallmark Channel, is going to stick to current program viewership, which will be known as "live" ratings, when Nielsen switches over to include DVR viewers in some of its ratings tools in December.

"We are going to use 'live' data," said Bill Abbott, executive vice president of advertising sales for Hallmark Channel. "It doesn't look like clients or media agencies are going to accept the value of DVR ratings."

Most TV networks want the punch of adding more viewers in negotiating TV deals, which means negotiating from two new streams of data Nielsen will be releasing--"live plus same day DVR viewing" or "live plus seven days of DVR viewing." Media agencies want to deal from just "live" ratings--mostly because adding DVR viewing is of lesser value, with the tendency of viewers to fast-forward through commercials.

Media agency analysts feel networks will go their separate ways concerning this issue. Stronger broadcast and cable networks, for example, will want to include all DVR viewing--because of their leverage in the marketplace. More modest players will employ other negotiating approaches.

Some media agencies also want to factor in so-called commercial ratings--now being released through Nielsen under its "minute-by-minute" TV research. Hallmark's Abbott has no problem if this is to take effect.

"We would do very well with commercial ratings--we wouldn't get hurt much," he says. Abbott estimates commercials running on Hallmark only lose 2 percent of their program ratings--far less than the 5 percent to 15 percent researchers estimate some commercials lose from their programming lead-ins.

Still, the majority opinion among cable advertising sales executives is to include all seven days of DVR viewing. Bruce Lefkowitz, executive vice president of advertising sales for Fox Cable Entertainment, said analysis of DVR viewing should be based on a VCR reference point. Since the mid-80s, Nielsen has been incorporating VCR recording--but not actual viewership--into its numbers. But technology can now account for DVRs' actual viewership.

"There is no reason that vendors should not get credit for seven-day playback," he says. "This is more accurate." Lefkowitz cautions that his company hasn't made a firm policy decision as yet on DVR viewership.

Neither has Turner Broadcasting System. Jack Wakshlag, chief research officer for Turner, says his company will make a decision in the next several weeks. He says one possible scenario is to have different types of deals for different streams of rating data.

"One could argue that if someone is watching a show five minutes later [than its scheduled live airing] then it has the same value as live ratings," he said. "'Live plus same day ratings' will also have significant value."

Right now, Nielsen Media Research is slowly incorporating DVR homes into its 10,000-plus home people meter sample. Wakshlag says DVR homes will be added into the sample gradually until DVR homes gets to 6 percent or 7 percent of the entire sample--numbers representing the percentage of U.S. homes that have DVRs.

Incorporating commercial ratings into the picture right now isn't a good idea, says Wakshlag. Early returns on commercial ratings, he says, aren't stable. "The data is very problematic from episode to episode to the show, and within episodes as well," said Wakshlag. Concerning the actual changes in Nielsen People Meter ratings of TV shows--which start on December 27--Wakshlag says not to expect much. Considering the small base of DVR homes, TV ratings at most may shift ratings only a few tenths of a percentage point.