• by Mark Cuban , December 20, 2005

It's almost time to turn the page on 2005, so MediaDailyNews decided to ask a few people we know to cast predictions on what will happen in the greater mediaverse in the new year. First up is Mark Cuban, who projects, among other things, that 2006 will be the year of high-definition TV.

Cuban's Predictions for 2006 (that probably won't happen until later, he says):

1. New zones will be developed for day and date distribution of movies from the major studios. A movie won't be available first-run in a market within the first month of release; it will be made available at forward-thinking retailers like Movie Gallery, Best Buy, and Wal-Mart. This will allow small markets to see the "hot" movies while they are hot.

2. The number of HDTV sets sold and receiving HD programming will far exceed projections.

3. The release of the PS3 with Blu-ray DVD by Sony will propel the release of movies and TV shows in high definition. HD DVD will quickly be forgotten because it wasn't part of Microsoft's Xbox 360 release. Microsoft's attempt to play catch-up will only create consumer confusion--which, in turn, will hurt Xbox sales.

4. Microsoft will come under a lot of pressure for its implementation of the CableCard2 module in Windows Media Center PCs. Its support of lowering the resolution of HD signals--which would render more than 16 million HDTV sets sold to date useless--will make the company a flashpoint for how not to transition to high definition.

5. The Sony PS3 with Blu-ray will revitalize the rental and DVD businesses as the majority of consumers rent Blu-ray DVDs to give them a try, while others purchase them at premium prices.

6. The increase in consumption of HD programming will lead to traditional releases of DVDs and programming for $99 DVD players that support advanced codecs like .264/Quicktime and DivX in HD.

7. Video on the Internet will continue to explode, leading consumers to complain that the Web is slowing down, and calling into question whether it can be a reliable content delivery mechanism.

8. Movies will be delivered on hard drives, and pre-loaded onto iPods, portable hard drives, and even on small secure digital drives, and Flash Drives for playback on mobile devices.

9. The prices of HDTVs will continue to fall while features and picture quality continue to improve.

10. The Holiday season of 2006 will be the first in which the number of High Def sets surpasses the number of analog sets sold.

And last but not least, TV producer Mark Burnett will approach me to take on the Donald face-to-face in "Apprentice Deathmatch."

Mark Cuban is owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team and an avid investor in Internet ventures. (mark.cuban@dallasmavs.com)