Nielsen Finally Issues New Ratings, 'House,' 'Medium' Get Biggest Boost

Nielsen finally released a complete set of its new ratings including DVR playback, and the initial impact has been statistically negligible.

The data, which measured viewing including DVR playback that occurred on Monday, was released on Thursday, two days later than Nielsen normally releases its so-called "overnights." When comparing Monday's "live" viewing to the "live plus the same day of DVR playback" viewing, there was little difference.

"The ratings are virtually exactly the same so far," says one veteran network research executive, in surveying Monday's prime-time numbers.

Five of Monday's 23 prime-time shows had microscopic differences in overall viewers--anywhere from 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. The five shows were Fox's "House," NBC's "Medium," CBS' "CSI: Miami," CBS' "Two and a Half Men," and CBS' "Out of Practice."

The greatest difference was with Fox's "House" which grabbed 31,000 more viewers, totaling 5,791,000 million for live plus same day DVR playback viewing. But this was still a small 0.5 percent difference from its regular live rating.

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NBC's "Medium" was next. It had a 0.3 percent difference--or 24,000 viewers tacked on because of same day DVR viewing--and totaled 8,023,000 viewers.

The three CBS shows had a 0.1 percent gain with overall DVR viewing that night. "CSI: Miami" added 9,000 viewers to 12,926,000; "Out of Practice" tallied 8,000 more for 9,528,000; and "Two and Half Men" grabbed 6,000 for 12,144,000.

But in looking further at the most popular demographic group--adults 18-49--some numbers might not make sense where compared to overall viewer data. For example, "Two and a Half Men" added more adult 18-49 viewers than overall viewers for DVR playback. It posted 7,000 more adult 18-49 viewers with DVR playback, to 5,178,000 viewers.

"House," "CSI: Miami," and "Out of Practice" data for adults 18-49 was seemingly more in line--although perhaps a little too perfect. Those three shows, according to Nielsen data, added exactly all their new viewers from the adult 18-49 viewer group.

"House" got its exact 31,000 DVR additions from adult 18-49 viewers, for a total of 2,932,000 adult 18-49 viewers; "CSI: Miami" got its entire 9,000 viewer difference from that group as well, totaling 5,449,000. Similarly, "Out of Practice"'s entire 8,000-viewer difference came from its adult 18-49 viewers, rising to 4,009,000.

Other data also had analysts scratching their heads: While "Medium" had 24,000 more overall viewers from DVRs, apparently none of them came from 18-49 viewers. Its 18-49 numbers were the same, live or live with DVR--3,453,000. One explanation: "Medium"'s new viewers could have come from other demo groups.

Another mystery was UPN's "Girlfriends," which had a gain in 18-49 viewers of just 1,000 viewers--or 0.1 percent--totaling 1,581,000 18-49 viewers. But somehow, "Girlfriends"' overall viewership numbers did not change at all--coming in at 2,767,000.

The answer to some of these questions could lie in standard mathematical error when calculating ratings. Differences between 'live' and 'live plus same day' are so small, said one veteran network executive, that "it's within a 'standard relative error.'" Said another executive: "Some would say there is not a difference at all with these numbers."

ABC won Monday night mostly from its last-ever installment of "Monday Night Football," which posted a 5.2 rating among adult 18-49 viewers, beating a lineup of virtually all repeat episodes from CBS, NBC, Fox, the WB, and UPN. "MNF" "live" and "live plus same day" ratings were exactly the same. Research has shown that viewers record far fewer live sporting events than taped programs.

Right now, only 60 DVR homes are included in Nielsen's 9,600-home sample. In the coming months, Nielsen will add up to 100 DVR homes a month to get up to 600 or so--a level that will mirror the 6 percent or 7 percent DVR penetration level of U.S. television households. Executives do expect larger differences to occur starting in January--when networks begin to air fresh prime-time episodes, and in the coming months, when more DVR homes are added to the Nielsen sample.

Nielsen delayed its set new DVR-included viewership data for two days--finally delivering its first set "live" and "live plus same day" data on Thursday, December 29th for Monday, December 26 programs. (It was scheduled to release data to clients on Tuesday).

Nielsen also delivered late in the day on Dec. 29th numbers for Dec. 27. A Nielsen spokeswoman said by Friday, Dec. 30, the rating service will be back on schedule, delivering viewing data for the previous day's programs.

Regarding the delay, most researchers praised Nielsen's move. "They wanted to make sure it was right," said Mike Mellon, senior vice president-research for the ABC Television Network. "I applaud them for that."

A more interesting side story has been that of Univision, the large Spanish-language network. Nielsen released ratings of the network this week in a format that compared it, side-by-side, to English-language channels.

Univision showed some positive results.

On Wednesday, Univision posted a 1.8 in the adult 18-49 ratings for the evening--well above English-language networks WB and UPN. The WB was sixth with a 0.8/2 for repeats of its dramas, while UPN recorded a 0.6/2 for a mix of sitcom and drama reruns.

Univision's highlight was its novella "Contra Viento Y Marea" ("Against All Odds") and its 1.9 rating/6 share among adult 18-49 viewers, which beat out the likes of NBC's "E-Ring" for fourth place. "Viento Y Marea"'s second half-hour did even better--a 2.0/6 placing third in the 8:30-9 time period--beating Fox's "Stacked."

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