• by Michael Shields , April 11, 2004

"Commando Nanny" and "Desperate Housewives" are poised to become the runaway hits of the fall season.

Okay--maybe not. But these are two shows under consideration for the network schedules next season. They are two of roughly 120 plus pilots being developed by the broadcast networks in hopes of making it on the air in the near future.

It's early, with schedules to be announced in May, and with lots of time for those to be tinkered with, but each of the networks except CBS has presented its best hopes for the future in prime time development meetings held during the last few weeks. As television buyers have begun to weigh in, optimism is running surprisingly high in a business that is characterized by a high failure rate.

"On paper, they are looking pretty good," said Steve Sternberg, executive vice president-director of audience analysis at Magna Global USA. "I haven't seen anything that looked like junk," he said.

Sternberg's group has produced a nearly 50-page report detailing the current state of each network's needs and its most promising shows in development. He said that production schedules have accelerated compared to years past, as networks move toward an eventual 52-week programming model.

Sternberg found fewer trends than in the past, when multiple networks were often coming up with similar concepts.

"It's interesting--I haven't seen the same kind of duplication," he said. "It's as if the networks have said, 'Let's try to be more creative.' The networks all seem to see themselves as having different needs and different personalities."

Much of that has to do with each network's scheduling needs. For example, Fox must plan around the World Series, and NBC will start the season right after the Olympics in late August.

Still, some patterns have emerged--the most glaring being five planned spin-offs, the most anyone can remember. Those include "Joey," via "Friends," two new installments of "Law and Order" and "CSI," and spin-offs of "One on One" and "The Practice."

Also, old stars are returning in new roles, despite frequent failures using that strategy. "We have Captain Kirk, Fonzie, Meathead coming back. I could go on," quipped Brad Adgate, senior vice president-director of research at Horizon Media.

Adgate also noticed some other odd trends: several shows being set in Hawaii, a handful of shows utilizing real-time a la "24," sitcoms featuring racially blended families, and more than one show about young singles raising children of suddenly deceased siblings.

Adgate was cautious about making any firm predictions at this point, waiting to see where networks will place whatever new shows make the schedule. "When it comes down to it, it's really all about time periods," he said.

Network Notes:

ABC

Has not had a hit drama in a while, and will lose "The Practice" after this season and "NYPD Blue" after next season. Buyers say they are making an effort to target women, citing lack of female-target programs in the vein of "Sex and the City" and "Ally McBeal." Most Intriguing shows:

* "Desperate Housewives:" Stars Sheryl Lee as a recently deceased housewife who looks down on her friends and family, revealing the secrets of what is seemingly the perfect suburb.

* "Blind Justice:" Stars Ron Eldard as a blind hero detective, a la "DareDevil."

* "Doing It:" described as "My So-Called Life" for boys.

* "WifeSwap:" Reality show in which two families swap moms for a short period (summer premiere).

* "The Benefactor:" Reality show where billionaire Mark Cuban gives away money (summer premiere).

Also projects from Jennifer Love Hewitt (as a sideline sports reporter) and Jessica Simpson (as a newsmagazine anchor).

CBS

Has the fewest numbers of holes to fill, although they still want to get younger.

Intriguing shows:

* "Sudsbury:" Kim Delaney raises two daughters with her two sisters, who are witches.

* "CSI New York:" Staring Gary Sinese.

* "Shut Up and Listen:" Jason Alexander as Tony Kornheiser of "Pardon the Interruption."

NBC Clinging to its lead in Adults 18-49 ratings, it needs a comedy to replace "Frasier" and "Friends" (15 comedies in development versus only 6 dramas). Hasn't had many scripted hits in the last few years ("Las Vegas" is a modest hit this season). Aging "Law & Order" and "ER" are declining.

Intriguing shows:

* "Joey:" "Friends" spin-off.

* "The Office:" American version of the popular British comedy.

* "Everyday Life:" Rob Reiner heads a family of shrinks.

* "Father of the Pride:" Animated series following a group of tigers, which perform in the Siegfried and Roy show. From Dreamworks.

* "The Contender:" Sly Stallone boxing reality show.

Fox

Will be aggressive in the summer, with launches planned for June, July, August. Will conclude several series in January to use "American Idol" to launch series - 16 comedies versus 9 dramas in development.

Intriguing shows:

* "Method and Red:" Stoner-rappers Method Man and Redman star in a comedy.

* "The Inside:" Described as part "Alias" and part "21 Jump Street," it focuses on a girl in high school who is really a 22-year-old undercover agent.

* "The Jury:" Procedural show from the point of view of the jury in criminal cases.

* "The Perez Family:" Comedy about a multi-generational Cuban-American family in Miami.

* "The Casino:" Reality series from Mark Burnett (summer premiere).

WB

* "Commando Nanny:" Based on producer Mark Burnett's real-life experience as a 20-year-old commando who raises three Beverly Hills brats.

* "Dark Shadows:" An update of the 1960s serial.

UPN

* "Kevin Hill:" Drama starring Taye Diggs as a former bachelor raising his deceased cousin's infant daughter.