• by Erik Sass  @eriksass1, March 13, 2007

Time magazine is set to unveil a new design this week as part of a continuing overhaul by Managing Editor Rick Stengel, who has repositioned the venerable newsweekly as a journal of news analysis, opinion and commentary. With the March 26 issue, according to Mediaweek, the editorial changes will culminate in a new look for the magazine that is said to resemble The Economist. But will the title's redesign have any effect on its success in the market? A look at major magazine redesigns over the past five years suggests the effect is minimal at best.

There's no question that Time, like other major newsweeklies, risks long-term stagnation in terms of both ad pages and circulation if it maintains the status quo. In 2006, ad pages remained essentially flat compared to 2005--with a slight 0.8% increase to 2,311, according to the Publishers Information Bureau (PIB). That put it right between Newsweek--where ad pages crept up an imperceptible 0.1% to 1,991--and U.S. News & World Report, which saw a more substantial 1.9% increase to 1,718.

Meanwhile, according to the most recent FAS-FAX report from the Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC), in the second half of 2006, Time's average weekly newsstand sales sank 8.3%, compared to the same period of 2005, ending at 133,084.

Acknowledging the reality of shrinking paid circulation, in January, Time began offering advertisers the choice of buying space using a much-reduced rate base of 3.25 million--down from 4 million--or a "total audience" figure of 19.5 million per issue, based on figures from Mediamark Research Inc.'s (MRI) new issue accumulation study. However, the choice between these rate models is unlikely to distract from the decline at the newsstand--and if other recent magazine redesigns are any indication, Time's new look won't be much help there, either.

These precedents include some other titles from Time Inc.'s stable.

In 2002, corporate bosses announced the retirement of Sports Illustrated's longtime editor Bill Colson and a redesign to be led by newcomer Terry McDonell, previously editor in chief of Wenner Media's Us Weekly. In the face of competition from the newly launched ESPN Magazine, McDonell was tasked with making SI younger and hipper, including shorter, more opinionated articles--and by most accounts, he succeeded.

But the redesign did not produce a lasting increase in readership or ad pages. Aside from an 8.1% increase in ad pages from 2003-2004, SI has experienced three years of declines--including a disastrous 16.8% drop in 2004-2005, and a more modest 3.5% drop in 2005-2006. At the same time, ABC recorded fairly consistent year-over-year drops in newsstand sales over six-month periods, falling 38% from an average 119,429 in June 2003 to 73,703 in December 2006. In that period, total paid circulation shrank 4.2% from 3,266,796 to 3,130,996.

In May 2003, Time Inc.'s Parenting--now owned by Bonnier, a Swedish publisher--got a redesign of its own, under the supervision of Editor in Chief Janet Chan. Again, Chan's redesign was widely considered a success, with an overhaul of its look and editorial content, repositioning the mag to target women more exclusively. (Previously, it had targeted men and women). In fact, the magazine won the 2003 National Magazine Award for General Excellence, among other honors. And in the short term, the new look and content may indeed have helped boost the magazine's financial performance, with 12.2% growth in ad pages from 2003-2004 to end at 1,468.

But as with SI, in the long run the redesign did not shift Parenting's fortunes substantially: Growth slowed in 2004-2005, with a 4.5% increase in ad pages to 1,533--and then crashed in 2005-2006, with ad pages plummeting an alarming 20.1% to 1,225. ABC recorded fairly consistent declines in newsstand sales and paid circulation. Average newsstand sales sank 65%--from 66,440 in June 2003 to 23,342 in December 2006--as total paid circulation declined 10% from 2,088,162 to 1,877,421. The title's weak performance was doubtless a factor in Time Inc.'s decision to sell the Time4Media group of titles.

Another cautionary tale comes from Time4Media's Field & Stream, also redesigned in May 2003 under the management of editor Sid Evans. The new look increased the physical dimensions of the magazine by half an inch, while introducing new departments and a new graphic design concept. However, aside from a short-term bump, the redesign failed to produce long-term gains by ABC and PIB measures. Ad pages did indeed rise 9.8% in 2003-2004--but this was followed by a 4.8% drop in 2004-2005 and a 13.3% drop in 2005-2006, for a decade low of 605. In that time, newsstand sales and total paid circulation have remained stagnant.

Of course, Time Inc. titles aren't the only ones experiencing these problems. Smithsonian, the staid monthly journal associated with the national museum in Washington, D.C., received a suitably low-key redesign in early 2003, including revised section headings, a bigger, more dynamic front-of-book "Around the Mall" section and a rearrangement of content "departments."

But like the more visible makeovers described above, in the long term, this redesign hasn't translated into better market performance. After a respectable increase of 4.7% in ad pages from 2003-2004, they fell 3.6% in 2005 and 6.9% in 2006, as paid circulation has stagnated over that period.

Smaller niche titles aren't exempt, either. Here Ziff Davis' PC Magazine is typical. Its redesign in April 2006 under Editor in Chief Jim Louderback introduced new sections, columns and original photography, as well as a fresh graphic-design concept. But this didn't stop ad pages from sliding 6.2% in full-year 2006, compared to 2005. Average newsstand sales tumbled 15.1% between December 2005 and December 2006, ending at 29,716.