• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, April 7, 2004

Madison Avenue's perceived demand for advertising inventory heading into the 2004-05 upfront buying season has improved slightly from recent months, especially for network TV, though the medium continues to have the lowest relative demand of any of the major media, according to media planners and buyers surveyed in March by InsightExpress for MediaDailyNews.

Overall demand for national media nudged up from January, when only 49 percent of planners and buyers said their demand for media had increased relative to the same point a year earlier. By comparison, 50 percent of the 279 executives, members of MediaPost's Advisory Panel, said their demand for media time and space had increased. Forty-one percent said it had remained the same, while 9 percent said it had decreased.

While that doesn't match the high reflected by the MediaPost panel in December 2003 - when 55 percent of the panel said their relative demand had increased - it indicates that demand hasn't eroded so far this year and may even be picking up. In fact, ad buying confidence levels are at their second highest level since MediaDailyNews began tracking industry perceptions in August 2003.

The results are important, because future ad spending confidence is considered critical to upfront advertising demand, when advertisers and agencies are asked by TV networks to make long-term commitments well in advance of the upcoming television season.

Ad Demand Nudges Upward In March

                 08/03  12/03  01/04  03/04   Change Vs. 01/04

Increased:         39%    55%    49%    50%       +1 point  
Stayed The Same:   43%    39%    43%    41%       -2 points 
Decreased:         18%     6%     8%     9%       +1 point

Source: MediaPost survey of media planners and buyers conducted online by InsightExpress. Base: March '04 = 279; January '04 = 285 respondents; December '03 = 195 respondents; August '03 = 226 respondents.

Interestingly, demand remains especially strong for cable TV. Fifty-two percent of the agency executives said their demand for cable TV has increased, while only 10 percent said it had declined in March. That's second in relative demand only to online media, which 60 percent of panel said had increased and only 5 percent said declined.

Not surprisingly, the relative demand among media is skewed among executives who consider themselves buyers of online media, as opposed to traditional media. Only 17 percent of the online media buyers indicated demand for network TV had increased, while 25 percent of traditional media executives did.

Conversely, only 55 percent of "traditional" media executives felt their demand for online media had grown, while 72 percent of "online" media executives felt that way. MediaPost only began tabulating traditional and online media buyers separately with the March survey and will begin trending those results in future months.

In an encouraging sign for print media, perceived demand for consumer magazines has improved significantly among the overall base from January and now ranks ahead of both network TV and newspapers in relative demand.

How Ad Demand Has Changed Relative To The Same Point A Year Ago

Increased Stayed The Same Decreased
Online 60% 35% 5%
Cable 52% 38% 10%
Radio 40% 45% 15%
Outdoor 34% 50% 17%
Magazines 31% 49% 20%
Newspapers 31% 46% 23%
Network TV 23% 55% 22%
All Media 50% 41% 9%
Source: Source: March 2004 MediaPost survey of media planners and buyers conducted online by InsightExpress. Base = 279 respondents.