Ad Growth Derailed: TNS Spots A Slower Track

In another sign the U.S. advertising economy may be running out of steam, ad tracking firm TNS Media Intelligence issued a downward revision to its 2007 ad forecast, calling for a modest 1.7% rise to $152.3 billion in the media it measures. That's two-thirds of the 2.6% rate of growth TNS MI had originally forecasted for 2007 when it issued its last prediction in January. President-CEO Steven Fredericks says demand from U.S. advertisers "has moved onto a slower track than we thought possible just six months ago."

In fact, TNS MI is banking on a higher rate of growth for the second half of the year, just to get to its new 1.7% annual rate of growth. The first half is now expected to grow only 1.2%, and TNS MI projects the second half will rise 2.3%.

"We expect the overall pace of activity will pick up slightly in the second half of the year," states Fredericks, adding the caveat that 2007 now looks to have the slowest rate of advertising industry expansion since the recession of 2001.

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2007 TOTAL AD EXPENDITURES

GROWTH ESTIMATES

TIME PERIOD

% CHANGE vs. 2006

First Half 2007

1.2%

Second Half 2007

2.3%

FULL YEAR 2007

1.7%

Source: TNS Media Intelligence

Not all of the advertising economy is flat, Fredericks noted that U.S. marketers continue to fuel growth in digital media spending - particularly online - at the expense of traditional media. Online ad spending is projected to rise 16% this year, more than twice the rate of the next fastest growing medium, cable network TV (+5.9%).

2007 ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE

GROWTH ESTIMATES BY MEDIUM

(Ranked By Growth Rate)

% CHANGE vs. 2006

Internet 1

+16.0%

Cable Network TV

+5.9%

Outdoor

+4.6%

Consumer & Sunday Magazines

+4.5%

Spanish Language Media 2

+3.7%

Network Television

+1.3%

Syndication TV

+1.2%

Radio 3

-0.3%

Business-To-Business Magazines

-1.5%

Newspapers 4

-2.9%

Spot TV 5

-5.5%

Source: TNS Media Intelligence

1. Internet display advertising only

2. Spanish Language Media consists of Hispanic Network TV; Hispanic Spot TV; Hispanic Magazines; and Hispanic Newspapers

3. Radio consists of Local Radio; National Spot Radio; and Network Radio

4. Newspapers consists of Local Newspapers and National Newspapers

5. Spot TV estimates do not include Hispanic Spot TV

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