• Broadcasting & Cable, Tuesday, December 11, 2007 11 AM

Imagine a time when broadcast networks end up quietly hoping that sales figures for their own advertisers drop. It may sound like a far-fetched scenario, but it is one possible outcome if the writers' strike drags on much longer. Advertisers and networks are already weighing options if and when the strike cuts audience down to where ratings guarantees can't be met. That could lead to a mix of make-goods and refunds - -and a new litmus test for the premiums the nets can get in the future.

After laying out $9 billion in the network upfront, advertisers found the nets didn't hold up their end -- even before the strike. Viewership was down. Audiences were below what advertisers had been guaranteed, even taking into account the expected drop due to the new C3 commercial ratings.

So, unless the strike is over soon, the first quarter will not have many of the biggest program draws and audiences will likely fall even further. "Mid-January is when it really could start to hit the fan," one ad buyer says.

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