• by Tameka Kee , December 31, 2007

eMarketer is forecasting U.S. online ad spending to reach almost $28 billion in 2008--with the market buoyed by the presidential election and the Beijing Olympics, among other factors. That's up nearly 29% from this year.

But as the fallout from the mortgage meltdown and other signs of a slowing economy stack up, can marketers continue to craft media plans and develop strategies based on such rosy financial predictions? Yes--and for a number of reasons, according to both eMarketer analysts and industry insiders.

Sources say that the primary incentive for advertisers to continue pumping cash onto the Web is the channel's inherent measurability. "With money tight, marketing executives will continue to gravitate toward the Internet, looking for more measurable ad formats to buttress their positions," said David Hallerman, senior analyst for eMarketer.

Some--like Peyman Nilforoush, CEO of the tech-focused ad network NetShelter--even think that the actual numbers will beat analysts' estimates, as a weaker economy will "force marketers to shift significant budgets to the only truly measurable medium." He added that we'd see another significant increase in online ad spending by technology marketers next year, with Microsoft leading the way. "As Microsoft continues to shift the majority of its nearly $1 billion U.S. ad spending to digital, others will follow suit," Nilforoush said.

Social media was a major focus for U.S. advertisers in 2007, and eMarketer is pegging that trend to continue, with spending on social networks slated to top $1.5 billion in 2008. According to Debra Aho Williamson, an eMarketer senior analyst, that 163% jump from last year's $920 million will not be solely focused on ads on sites like MySpace or Facebook.

"Although targeted advertising is getting the lion's share of attention and will continue to be a hot button in 2008, other forms of social network marketing, such as search advertising, widgets and e-commerce, will draw increased marketer interest," Williamson said. "Facebook's hipness will wane in favor of niche community Web sites," said Cree Lawson, CEO of Travel Ad Network. Indeed, as the online audience continues to fragment, the idea of a generic "social media ad strategy" tied to a Facebook or MySpace campaign will be severely challenged.

While Willamson thinks consumers will eventually be able to create one profile and use it in many places on the Web, advertisers will need to come up with multiple campaign objectives and dynamic creative, as "activities such as online shopping, searching and even sending e-mail will be enhanced with social networking features"--and each piece of social media will warrant a custom approach.