• by January 10, 2001

Report by two of Europe's leading research companies predicts broadband explosion with more than 18 million DSL and Cable subscribers by 2003.

Pan-European Internet research company, Van Dusseldorp & Partners, in partnership with International media analysts, Screen Digest, have published a report that examines the full potential of broadband Internet access and what it will mean for the European market.

The report shows current figures for cable modem and Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) penetration of European households at 1.79% - up three times from 1999's figure of 0.48%. The report predicts that by 2003, penetration will stand at over 21% - with over 18 million subscribers - up more than 44 times than in 1999.

The advent of broadband Internet access, which has been available in the US for some time but is only now beginning to make inroads into Europe, makes a whole range of new services possible. As download speeds have increased and more bandwidth has become available, the possibility of delivering screen-based content such as films, television programs and music has moved a step closer to mass market usage.

Cable companies have established an early lead in delivering broadband to Internet users and look set to exploit this advantage over the next 12 months before DSL becomes more widely available. However, in 1999, there were 180 million conventional telephone lines across the EU compared to 45 million cable subscribers. This will provide DSL with a larger immediate potential audience as it makes use of existing copper telephone wires to offer broadband Internet access.

By 2002, most alternative European telecom operators should have begun to launch DSL in competition with the incumbents following the expected unbundling of the local loop, which allows access to telephone exchanges by other companies. The report anticipates that this will see DSL overtaking cable in most of the markets under consideration, capturing an estimated 70% of the 18.8 million cable and DSL subscribers by the year 2003.

Germany's early adoption of DSL, partly due to lack of investments in the German cable infrastructure, means that it now leads the market in Europe. Van Dusseldorp & Partners and Screen Digest estimate that by the end of 2000,there were approximately 400,000 DSL subscribers and only 1,000 cable Internet subscribers, compared to the next largest market, France, which has 60,000 DSL and 122,000 cable Internet subscribers. The UK has only 30,000 DSL subscribers, putting it at number nine in the European DSL league table. Ireland and Portugal are the only European countries to have no DSL subscribers.

The German market will have increased to 5 million DSL subscribers by 2003, whilst France, the Netherlands and the UK are predicted to have 1 million subscribers each. This will bring the total European market up to 18.8 million cable and DSL subscribers, 13.3 million of which will be DSL compared to 5.5 million cable.

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