While SMS text-messaging will continue to dominate the category, the spread of flat-rate, unlimited data plans will accelerate the shift of common PC-based communication methods such as e-mail and instant messaging to mobile phones. E-mail alone is expected to make up 20% of mobile messaging revenue by 2012.
According to Nielsen Mobile, 144 million--or 57%--of U.S. mobile subscribers were data users in the first quarter of 2008. Nielsen estimates that 14% of U.S. mobile subscribers have unlimited data plans, while 50% of data users would prefer to have such a package.
Earlier this year, Sprint introduced a $99 flat-rate, unlimited plan for voice and data service while T-Mobile launched a similar plan covering voice and text-messaging. AT&T and Verizon Wireless offer $99 flat-rate calling plans, but have not yet gone as far as Sprint in adding unlimited data at that price.
Still, the moves have helped the major carriers boost mobile data revenues significantly in the past year.
"SMS use has exploded over the last three years in the U.S., while Western European SMS revenues are beginning to plateau due to price erosion, despite continuing increases in overall traffic," said David Kerr, vice president for Strategy Analytics' global wireless practice.