Hold 'em or Fold 'em

by Jack Loechner, Mar 24, 2009, 8:15 AM

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A new 24/7 WallStreet report says that, over the last few weeks, the newspaper industry has entered a new period of decline.  The parent of the papers in Philadelphia declared bankruptcy as did the Journal Register chain. The Rocky Mountain News closed along with the Seattle Post Intelligencer, owned by Hearst, and Hearst has said it will also close The San Francisco Chronicle if it cannot make massive cuts at the paper.

The report includes a list of the ten major daily papers that are most likely to fold or shut their print operations and only publish online, chosen based on the financial strength of their parent companies, the amount of direct competition that they face in their markets, and industry information on how much money they are losing. Based on this analysis, it is possible that eight of the fifty largest daily newspapers in the United States could cease publication in the next eighteen months.

• The Philadelphia Daily News... with newspaper advertising falling sharply, the city cannot support two papers and the Dally News has a daily circulation of only about 100,000.  The tabloid has a small staff, most of whom could support the web operation for both of the city dailies
• The Minneapolis Star Tribune has filed for Chapter 11... It could become an all-digital property, but supporting a daily circulation of over 300,000 is too much of a burden.
• The Miami Herald, which has a daily circulation of about 220,000... There is a very small chance it could merge with the Sun-Sentinel, but it is more likely that the Herald will go online-only with two editions, one for English-speaking readers and one for Spanish.
• The Detroit News is one of two daily papers in the big American city badly hit by the economic downturn... cutting back the number of days that the paper is delivered will not save enough money to keep the paper open.
• The Boston Globe is losing $1 million a week... Boston.com, the online site that includes the digital aspects of the Globe, will probably be all that will be left of the operation.
• The San Francisco Chronicle. Parent company Hearst has already set a deadline for shutting the paper if it cannot make tremendous cost cuts. The online version of the paper could be the only version by the middle of the 2009.
• The Chicago Sun Times is the smaller of two newspapers in the city... and has no chance of competing with The Chicago Tribune.
• NY Daily News is one of several large papers fighting for circulation and advertising in the New York City area. Based on figures from other big dailies it could easily lose $60 million or $70 million and has no chance of recovering from that level.
• The Fort Worth Star Telegram is another one of the big dailies that competes with a larger paper in a neighboring market... The Star Telegram will have to shut down or become an edition of its rival, The Dallas Morning News
• The Cleveland Plain Dealer is in one of the economically weakest markets in the country. The Plain Dealer will be shut or go digital by the end of next year, concludes the report

But a recent report from PewResearch says that fewer than half of Americans (43%) say that losing their local newspaper would hurt civic life in their community "a lot." Even fewer (33%) say they would personally miss reading the local newspaper a lot if it were no longer available.

However, 56% of regular newspaper readers, says the Pew study, say that if the local newspaper they read most often no longer published, either in print or online, it would hurt the civic life of the community a lot. 55% say they would personally miss reading the paper a lot if it were no longer available.

If Your Local Newspaper Closed...
	Get Local News From Print & Online Newspapers
	All Readers	Regularly	Less Often
How much would it hurt civic life?
A lot	43%	56%	30%
Some	31	25	36
Not much	15	12	19
Not at all	8	6	10
How much would you miss it?
A lot	33%	55%	12%
Some	25	25	25
Not much	16	10	21
Not at all	26	10	42
Source: Pew Center for People & the Press, March 2009

When it comes to local news, more people say they get that news from local television stations than any other source. About two-thirds say they regularly get local news from television reports or television station websites.

Regular Source of Local News (% of Respondents)
Get News Regularly From	% of Respondents
TV	66%
Online TV	11
Print Newspaper	41
Online Newspaper	13
Radio	34
Internet	31
Source: Pew Center for People & the Press, March 2009

A recent analysis of newspaper readership by Pew Research found that just 27% of Generation Y, those born in 1977 or later, read a newspaper the previous day. That compares with 55% of those in the Silent or Greatest Generations, born prior to 1946. Only 23% of those younger than age 40 say they would miss the local newspaper they read most often a lot if it were to go out of business, compared to 33% of those ages 40 to 64 and 55% of those age 65 and older.

Impact of Local Paper Closure (by Age of Respondent, % of Group)
	% of Responses
Impact	A Lot	Some	Not Much/Not at All
Hurt Civic Life
Total	43%	31%	23%
Age
18-39	41	31	24
40-64	42	32	24
65+	51	26	21
Personally Miss It
Total	33	25	42
Age
18-39	23	29	48
40-64	33	24	43
65+	55	19	26
Source: Pew Center for People & the Press, March 2009

The Pew report concludes that "... many of those who say the closing of the local paper wouldn't make much, if any, difference in their communities note that there are other news sources available or criticize the newspaper's quality. 29% say there are other ways to get news, including television, radio news and the internet. 20% say the quality of the newspaper is poor, while 5% say it is biased. 10% say they don't read the paper and 9% say they don't think other people read it either."

For more information from 24/7WallStreet, please visit here, or to view the PewResearch report in more detail, go here.

 

 

 

 

 

                       

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