• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, April 24, 2009

As clients evaluate their budgets, a noted Wall Street analyst predicts total dollars for the Big Four networks in the upfront market will drop 15% this spring -- indicative of a buyers' market. The sharp decline would decrease the total haul for ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC to approximately $7.4 billion.

"All in all, balance of power likely remains in buyers' hands," Barclays Capital's Anthony DiClemente wrote in a Friday report.

Still, a steep drop-off in upfront dollars doesn't necessarily mean network revenues will decline as precipitously over the next year and a half. DiClemente noted that one reason for the expected decrease is networks likely selling a lesser amount of inventory than past years.

DiClemente predicts the four networks will sell on average about 72% of inventory compared to 82% a year ago, since they are resistant to dropping pricing below last year's levels. Networks would then hope to benefit from higher CPMs in the scatter market down the line, which means betting on an improved economy to fuel demand.

Otherwise, DiClemente wrote, selling less upfront inventory "could have the effect of inflating supply available in the scatter market in 2009/10, which could instead act as a price deflator later."

Still, DiClemente cast doubt on how successful networks will be at eking out upfront CPM increases, even with lower sellout rates. He predicts CPM drops across the board: CBS and Fox down 1%, ABC dropping 3, and NBC down 5%.

Regardless of the macroeconomy (highlighted in the TV market by an expected decline in domestic automaker spending), upfront volume could also be adversely impacted by fewer GRPs to sell. DiClemente wrote that NBC giving five prime-time hours to Jay Leno each week may lead to a deflation of inventory to pitch, as well as the falling ratings networks have posted this year.

Using C3 ratings (which serve as the currency), the five-network average in the 18-to-49 demo has dropped 7% this season (figures include the Big Four and CW). Fox is down 12%; NBC minus 9%; and ABC falling 5%. CBS is up 5%.

Another factor in lower broadcast dollars, DiClemente suggested, is the continued flow of broadcast dollars to cable, in addition to advertiser hunger for other media, namely the Internet.

With a buyers' market emerging, DiClemente wrote that advertisers may be able to extract "greater concessions" from networks, such as more options to cancel buys if economic currents warrant. They may also get some low-priced or gratis opportunities on network-owned Web sites, as well as with product placement.