• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, May 7, 2009

Goosed by a later Easter holiday, major retailers are reporting generally more upbeat sales results for April, but economists say it's a little too soon to start crowing about good news.

 

"One very good sign is that a number of stores, including Wal-Mart, are noting an increase in store traffic -- people are shopping again," says Frank Badillo, senior economist for Retail Forward, a Columbus, Ohio-based consulting company that tracks the monthly sales results of about 35 leading chains. "But whether this is pent-up demand, and they're just buying to replace things, or increased spending, it's hard to say."

Overall, the Retail Forward index gained 0.9% for about 35 retailers reporting monthly results. Some crosscurrents make it especially hard to read broader trends, he adds. While this year's April results are benefiting from the later Easter, they are also being compared to last year's April, when some stores felt a jump from the first round of economic-stimulus checks.

And while new stimulus money is flowing into workers' paychecks in terms of tax cuts, Retail Forward's survey finds that 32% of consumers say the amount is too small for them to notice a difference. "Still," he adds, "some shoppers may be factoring that extra money into purchase decisions."

Wal-Mart Stores turned in one of the month's strongest performances, with comparable-store sales gaining 5.9% at its U.S. Walmart stores, excluding fuel. The Bentonville, Ark.-based company attributed the gains to increased store traffic and more discretionary spending.

And for the 13-week period ending May 1, the company says sales in its domestic Walmart stores gained 3.9%, ahead of its expectations. It says this is its seventh consecutive reporting period of increased traffic, and that grocery, wellness, hardlines, entertainment and home categories all did well. Sales of its seasonal products were up in the high-single digits compared to last year.

On the other hand, it says the Easter shift hurt its Sam's Club unit, which posted a 0.3% gain for the month. (The company also says it will no longer provide monthly sales updates, which will make tracking trends in consumer spending a little tougher.)

At Target, April comparable-store sales increased 0.3%, in line with its guidance.

Mainstream department stores, however, continue to post declines. The news was worst at the high end, with Saks' sales falling a dizzying 32%, Neiman Marcus dropping 22.5%, and Nordstrom posting a decline of 10.8%. Macy's says its same-store sales fell 9.1%, while at JC Penney, results declined 6.6% -- slightly ahead of its expectations. The Plano, Texas-based retailer says sales of women's and children's clothing were stronger than expected, while fine jewelry sales continue to be weak. At Dillard's, sales fell 6%, and at Kohl's, the decline was 6.2%.

Yet, while some specialty stores continued to languish -- with same-store sales falling 6% at Limited Brands and 4% at The Gap -- The Children's Place posted an impressive 5% gain, and TJX, which owns both T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, saw same-store results climb 3%.

And while most teen stores suffered, with Abercrombie & Fitch dropping 22%, American Eagle Outfitters 5%, and Wet Seal 2.2%, The Buckle continued to shine, gaining 18.2% in the month, while Aeropostale posted a 20% gain.