• by Masha Geller , May 10, 2001

All of us, at least in theory, are familiar with e-commerce (electronic commerce) and m-commerce (mobile commerce). As if that wasn't enough, there will soon be something called T-Commerce - "e-commerce over TV and Web transactions instigated by TV commercials."

Actually, before you add t-commerce to your list of things to think about, according to the latest from Myers Reports, t- commerce won't roll around until about a decade from now.

The uncertain future of this new field hinges on the development of interactive TV, and U.S. revenue for ITV advertising, commerce and subscriptions is unlikely to surpass $400 million this year, Myers Mediaenomics says. ITV will find deployment "difficult" until 2006, after which it will grow "exponentially" through 2010.

"It is dangerous and irresponsible to project aggressively before we have actual marketplace experiences that validate basic business models," the report warns. "These are just evolving. Over-enthusiastic researchers and analysts became swept up in a whirlwind of technological hoopla."

Over-enthusiasm not withstanding, the report points out that Myers believes "interactive television is more than a wave of change - it represents a tsunami for the broadcast and cable industries," though "real dynamic revenue growth" will not occur until 2006 and beyond.

A survey conducted by Myers Reports among a cross section of media industry executives revealed a distinct difference in attitude among ITV companies and cable operators.

The ITV companies, which have products, services, expertise and enthusiasm to ensure progress and deployment, express great optimism over the potential of interactive television services. The cable operators, meanwhile, are viewing ITV developments with a "healthy skepticism."