• by Masha Geller , June 14, 2001

The biggest news of the day is Robert Coen. Every six months, this senior VP and director of forecasting for Universal McCann, reviews ad spending numbers and tries to predict the future. Today, he said that this year ad spending growth will slow down to its lowest level in ten years - a measly 2.5%.

I'm still not convinced that these forecasts are important to anyone but Robert Coen himself (six month ago he predicted 5.8%), but we did dutifully report on his findings in our MediaDailyNews today. So if you're interested, please see our story at https://www.mediapost.com/enews.htm?s=86070.

I'd much rather talk about TiVo and the threat some think it poses for the advertising industry.

As AdAge reported earlier this week, a top TiVo executive speaking at National Cable & Telecommunications Association convention in Chicago said users of the personal video recorders are opting to zap out half of the commercials they could watch. Reportedly, TiVo users tend to be the high- income consumers advertisers want to reach, "making the figures a cause for concern."

AdAge wrote that a "saving grace" for the TV and marketing industries so far has been TiVo's relatively limited penetration (about 200,000 are out in the world right now), supporting the point with a quote from a Procter & Gamble interactive TV strategist who said marketers don't need to be concerned yet. "You have to be scared when the penetration gets high," he said. "You don't have to be scared today."

This "not yet" is the very same response I get whenever I ask any online ad luminary about banner zappers like AdSubtract. Much like TiVo, ad zapper penetration is quickly but quietly increasing and no one seems to worry.

So, the question is, WHEN is it time to get scared? I personally think we should keep our cool today, but come Monday morning, roll up our sleeves and figure out how to make ads that don't annoy people enough to warrant a zapper.

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