• by Erik Sass  @eriksass1, April 15, 2010

Three different forecasts all have the newspaper industry experiencing yet another year of advertising revenue losses in 2010 -- while noting that compared to the last couple of years, it's not that bad.

The first forecast comes from J.P. Morgan, where analysts are predicting declines of 5.5% and above for some of the nation's newspaper publishers in 2010. Specifically, J.P. Morgan has advertising revenues falling 5.5% at the New York Times Co. and 5.6% at Gannett; these companies (especially Gannett) are often viewed as bellwethers for the rest of the newspaper business.

Meanwhile, Magna's latest ad-spending forecast for the U.S. predicts that print newspapers will see total advertising revenues fall another 11%, with local newspapers experiencing a slightly smaller 10% drop. Consumer magazines will fare only slightly better, with a predicted 6.9% drop. This negative outlook for print media stands in stark contrast to broadcast -- where Magna sees a rebound for TV with 10.2% growth, including a 16.2% jump for local TV.

Finally, ZenithOptimedia produced a somewhat less alarming forecast for newspapers -- but its global survey includes newspapers outside the U.S. (including places like China and India, where the medium is thriving). Around the world, Zenith predicts a mere 4% decline in newspaper ad revenues, compared to global growth of 4.3% for TV and 12.9% for the Internet.

Regardless what the specific number ends up as, another drop in 2010 will make it the fifth straight year where the medium has suffered a decline in ad revenues -- a record unmatched by any period in U.S. history, including the Great Depression. Over the last half-decade, total newspaper ad revenues have declined 44% from a peak $49.4 billion in 2005 to $27.6 billion in 2009, according to the Newspaper Association of America.