U.S. domestic cable advertising revenue will grow by double-digit percentages this year -- but will soften in the ensuing periods.
SNL Kagan says U.S. cable networks will see a 14% rise in advertising revenue to $25.5 billion in 2011, but soften to a 10% rise in 2012 to $27.9 billion. The company predicts an 8% or 9% rise after that: $30.5 billion in 2013; $33.1 billion in 2014; and $35.8 billion in 2015. For five years -- 2011 to 2015 -- it will have an 8.9% compounded growth rate.
Among the key network players, so far this year, SNL Kagan says News Corp. cable networks grew 23% in domestic advertising revenue in the second quarter of 2011. AMC Networks were up 21%, while Hallmark Channel grew 16%. Discovery is up 13%; Scripps Interactive improved 13%. Viacom was 12% higher; Turner Broadcasting added 11%, and Comcast climbed 10%. Outdoor Channel Holdings eked out a 1% improvement.
Among the strongest recent performances, Turner Broadcasting had a 31% spike in the first quarter of 2011, which followed a 21% rise in the fourth quarter of 2010.
Cable affiliate license fees will head in the same direction, and see slightly slower growth -- a compounded five-year growth rate of 7.5%: $26.8 billion in 2011; $28.8 billion in 2012; $31.2 billion in 2013; $33.4 billion in 2014; and $35.8 billion in 2015.
The cable networks continue to be a strong business when it comes to big cash flow -- consistently climbing in the 2000 decade, reports SNL Kagan. In 2010, the industry had totaled $18.5 billion in cash flow -- a 41% cash-flow margin.