• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, January 24, 2012

Growth in mobile video consumption is so poised, it’s difficult to predict how high and fast the curve might move, while the same goes for advertising and other revenue streams.

“The opportunity appears to be enormous by any stretch of the imagination,” said Nielsen Senior Vice President Scott L. Brown, noting the boom in smartphone penetration.

Mike Bloxham, the executive director of the Media Behavior Institute, said: “There’s a huge amount of growth yet to come in mobile-related revenues … we’re almost at a Jurassic stage of development.”

Bloxham did caution that analyst suggestions that the mobile advertising market would parallel growth in usage could be too ambitious. If mobile accounts for 8% of media consumption time, that hardly means 8% of ad dollars would be apportioned in the space, given the many other factors that impact media buying.

“That’s complete garbage,” he said in joining Brown on a panel at the NATPE event. “Media money is not allocated based on time spent alone. It’s much more complicated than that.” 

Ad dollars might not be the top revenue driver in mobile video, Nielsen’s Brown suggested. “The whole pay model versus advertising model still needs to be reconciled,” he said. 

In addition to on-demand content, there is likely to be an increasing demand for live events streamed on mobile devices, as ESPN is making available now -- especially as social media uptake continues. “People like the instantaneousness of connecting with their friends,” said Linear Media CEO Bill Deutch. 

The live appeal with social media is something that local stations are banking on as they seek quicker rollout of over-the-air simulcasts on mobile devices. A fourth panelist, Randa Minkarah, a senior vice president at Fisher Communications station group, said the company tested a live stream of the Oscars in Seattle last year that prompted considerable communication on Twitter.

The over-the-air simulcasts will carry the ads in the channels, but also offer another ad opportunity in the insertion of an interstitial that will appear when a person changes channels, Minkarah said.