Upfront Forecasts: Cable Surpasses Broadcast
More optimistic than other recent media analysts' estimations, Anthony DiClemente of Barclays Capital expects upfront revenue for the major four broadcast and cable networks to climb 4.3% and 6.3%, respectively.
Much like other estimates, DiClemente expects cable to be higher than broadcast overall -- getting to $9.88 billion and the broadcast networks $9.5 billion. A recent estimate from Morgan Stanley said broadcast networks could gain 1% to $9.2 billion, and 4.3% to $9.7 billion for cable. There are some 60-plus advertising-supported cable networks.
DiClemente guesses that CBS will reach nearly $3 billion overall; ABC will come in at $2.6 billion; and NBC will hit $1.8 billion.
Fox will come in after ABC with $2.1 billion, but DiClemente expects volume to be 2.1% lower, partly because of weaker current season “American Idol” ratings. “Idol” contributes a healthy overall share of Fox’s prime-time ratings. Also, Fox will hold back more upfront inventory for the scatter marketplace.
In a report, DiClemente says automotive advertising will push the market -- still representing some 20% of overall upfront spend. He says this year’s upfront will be still strong. although not as powerful as last year’s marketplace.
He believes CBS will have the best results when it comes to the cost-per-thousand viewers: 10% higher versus a year ago. Fox is expected to increase 9%; ABC, 8%; and NBC, 7%.