Pivotal's Wieser Pivots, Downgrades U.S. Ad Economy

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Citing media company earnings reports and comments from media buyers, influential Wall Street analyst Brian Wieser has downgraded his estimates for U.S. ad expansion this year and through 2017. Describing previous upbeat sentiment as a "false dawn," Wieser downgraded his 2012 U.S. ad growth projection by nearly a percentage point to +1.4% from his previous estimate of +2.3%.

The new 2012 growth estimate is only marginally better than 2011's actual expansion of 1.3%.

That is troubling, given that 2012 has incremental stimulus, such as the Summer Olympics and political campaigns, and historically grows at a faster rate than nonquadrennial years.

"With the U.S. fiscal cliff' unlikely to be resolved soon, and with economists downgrading their expectations for the economy at the same time, we’re skeptical that the third quarter 202 will reverse course again," Pivotal Research Group's Wieser writes in a research note sent to investors and the media Wednesday morning.

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1 comment on "Pivotal's Wieser Pivots, Downgrades U.S. Ad Economy".

1. Jeff Dickey from Omnichannel Marketing Project
   

   commented on: August 16, 2012 at 8:34 a.m.
   Brian is right, but the reason may have less to do with the economy and more to do with the fact that technology and data/analytics/measurement are beginning to produce actionable insights that produce better results with less spending. We are in a zero based economy for retail and brands where forward growth will in the aggregate likely just reflect inflationary increases. Retailers and brands will grow their profits through more cost effective marketing, better merchandising and growing their share of the slowly growing pie. Omnichannel marketing will be the catalyst for much of this moving forward.

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