• by Wayne Friedman , November 14, 2012

Somewhat in line with lackluster economic projections, estimates are that overall local media revenues are expected to rise only at a 2.1% rate over the next four years. But newer local digital media -- part of that overall pie -- will grow by double-digit percentages.

BIA/Kelsey forecasts that U.S. local media advertising revenues will rise to $147.1 billion by 2016.

But newer local media -- online/interactive/digital -- will grow more quickly than the overall local media  -- rising at a 12.4% compounded annual growth rate to $38.1 billion in 2016. It had been at $21.2 billion in 2011.

Local search will also move up more rapidly than the overall local media category -- increasing at a 12.1% growth rate to $10.2 billion in four years. It had been at $5.7 billion a year ago. Local display will grow even more rapidly than other local digital categories, with a 16.2% growth rate to $5.1 billion -- double the level it reached in 2011, when it pulled in $2.4 billion.

Matt Booth, chief strategy officer and program director, Interactive Local Media, BIA/Kelsey, stated that he remains "very bullish on interactive spending, and especially on new mobile monetization methods, like point-of-sale offerings, that are showing performance improvements. In fact, we expect mobile growth to offset some of the slowing in core search and display in the outer years of the forecast."

Earlier, BIA/Kelsey estimated that overall local mobile revenues would hit $5.8 billion by 2016 -- up from $664 million in 2011.

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