Local television ad dollars are expected to slowly rise over the next four years.
By 2017, local TV stations' traditional TV advertising revenues will rise 12.5% to $21.5 billion from $19.2 billion by the end of this year.
This doesn't include growing digital TV advertising dollars that TV stations are recognizing -- estimated to be $700 million this year and rising to $1.1 billion in four years, reports media advisor BIA/Kelsey.
This year's take -- as expected -- will be down from the $20.8 billion the industry took in last year, $600 million of which came from online revenues. Political and Summer Olympic advertising was a major reason for the rise in 2012 -- a 13.2% gain over 2011.
The gain overall was better than expected.
“Last year's revenues accelerated quicker than we had anticipated and overall, political advertising was the driving force for television stations, as is typical for a presidential election year,” stated Mark Fratrik, vice president and chief economist, BIA/Kelsey. “We expect the pace to normalize this year, but continue its upward trend to pre-recession numbers, in part due to online revenues."
BIA/Kelsey sees a 6.3% rise in traditional TV revenues in 2014 from 2013 to $20.4 billion and a 17% rise in online revenue to $800 million.
The next big election and Olympic year, 2016, will see a rise to $21.9 billion in traditional TV revenue and $1 billion in TV stations' online revenue. It will then fall back (as it has done for 2013 versus 2012) the next year, 2017, landing at $21.5 billion.