U.S. advertising is projected to grow 1.2% for 2013, with total media owner advertising revenues climbing to $176.3 billion.
If the prediction is accurate, it would match 2012’s rate of growth, but still be 14% below the 2007 peak of $205 billion, wrote Pivotal senior analyst Brian Wieser in a report issued Friday.
Growth will improve in the second half, to 1.4% (climbing from 1% in the first half), leading into 2014 when the momentum will continue. Wieser believes 2014 will yield ad growth of 3.2%.
“While these growth rates are a long way from the mid-single-digit growth rates we saw during many of the years in the last decade, a stable advertising economy at least sets the stage for growth in years ahead as the overall economy improves,” Wieser wrote.
He predicted that digital advertising would continue to be the fastest-growing media sector this year, growing 13% to $41.2 billion, which would constitute 23% of the total ad pie. Online video will grow by almost one-third of its 2012 total to $3 billion, Wieser projected.
“All digital advertising is generally benefitting from several factors,” wrote Wieser, “including a rising share of marketers in the economy, who uniquely benefit from digital,” such as e-commerce companies and small companies that “operate at a national or global scale with the help of the Web.” Ongoing budget shifts made by large brands will also drive digital ad growth, he added.
National TV will be up around 3%, roughly in line with 2012 growth. “But cable will probably gain share of national TV budgets at a slightly faster pace in 2013 than occurred last year.” Thus, he sees cable growing by 5% with broadcast networks down 2% for the year.