advertising growth is expected to dip for the calendar year 2013 -- with overall U.S. advertising gains up 2.5%.
MoffettNathanson Research says total TV advertising will sink 0.8%, with
national cable -- the silver lining of the group -- up 6% for the year.
Local TV stations will sink 6%, with the big four broadcast networks down 4.2%. Local cable will drop 4% and national
syndication will be flat.
Much of the blame can be attributed to the year being a non-political, non-Olympic year.
In 2014, however, estimates are that TV advertising growth will
climb 6.4%, with local TV stations gaining the best results -- up 9% --as a result of a return of political and Olympic advertising money.
Internet advertising -- display and search -- will
continue to be the major star, rising 15%. Newspapers will be down 7%. Radio will be essentially flat -- up 0.2% -- consumer magazines will slip 1%, and outdoor will be up 3%. Overall U.S. advertising
is expected to gain 2.5% this year and 5.5% next year.
In the fourth-quarter 2013, MoffettNathanson expects cable networks as a group will climb 6.6% to $5.8 billion.
networks -- including ESPN -- will be up 8% to $1.23 billion. Viacom networks will rise 5% to $1.15 billion; Time Warner networks, which include Turner Broadcasting, will grow 5% to 1.0 billion; and
NBCUniversal cable channels will add 2.9% to reach $904 billion.
Other smaller groups will also see significant gains. Fox cable networks will grow 9% to $456 million; Discovery will rise
8% to $429 million; and Scripps Networks Interactive will climb 6.5% to 436 million.
The faster-growing AMC Network -- coming off a small advertising base -- will leap an eye-opening 30% to
Among the broadcast networks, Fox will see an 8% gain during the period to reach $1.04 billion; CBS will rise 6% to $1.26 billion; ABC will only gain 1.2% to $942 million.
MoffettNathanson did not analyze NBC network results. Overall, national TV advertising is estimated to see a 6% rise in the fourth quarter.