Broadcast TV Advertising Forecast To Continue Early 2015 Decline

by Wayne Friedman , April 13, 2015

First-quarter U.S. domestic national TV advertising still appears to be “disappointing,” according to one analysis.

MoffettNathanson Research now expects that national TV advertising will decline 8.6% in the first quarter to $9.16 billion -- a slightly better forecast than its earlier 8.9% estimate, but “still a disappointing number,” say the authors.

Broadcast networks will dip 20% to $3.87 billion -- largely due to NBC’s Olympics in the first quarter of 2014. Cable networks are forecast to rise 1.5% to $5.3 billion. Taking out the NBC’s Olympics of a year ago, broadcast will drop 2.5%, with cable up 3.1%.

Fox is expected to decline 34% to $697 million, but taking out its Super Bowl results of a year ago will lower the network’s first-quarter “core” advertising national take by 7%.

NBC will be down significantly, due to the absence of nearly $850 million in Olympics advertising money from a year ago, giving it a total of $1.823 billion.

This year, MoffettNathanson expects NBC to bring in $1.277 billion -- which, for its “core” advertising revenue, will mean nearly a 30% bump for its network and TV stations. Much of this gain will be attributed to the Super Bowl.

CBS is now expected to sink 3.8% to $1.13 billion; and ABC is forecast to slip 1% to $770 million.

The best individual cable network group will be Disney’s networks, in particular, thanks to ESPN and the College Football playoff series in January. MoffettNathanson expects Disney to be 18.2% higher to $1.02 billion; AMC Networks, which saw big gains from “The Walking Dead,” will add 18% to $245 million.

On the losing end is Viacom, estimated to be off 5% to $964 million, while Discovery will sink 1% to $369 million. Time Warner's group of cable networks -- including TNT, TBS, CNN and others -- will be up 2% to $1.0 billion.

advertising, broadcast networks, cable tv, forecast, media measurement, revenue, tv

2 comments about "Broadcast TV Advertising Forecast To Continue Early 2015 Decline ".

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Tory Houston from student, April 13, 2015 at 9:30 p.m.
In this article, “Broadcast TV Advertising Forecast To Continue Early 2015 Decline,” it makes sense that national TV advertising will decline 8.6%. As time moves on, people are less interested in watching commercials and more interested in binge watching through networks such as Netflix, Hulu Plus, and HBO Go. For companies to continue to advertise via television already seems to be in the past. Most people are interested in using their DVR to fast forward through commercials and channel skim during commercials. For me, the best way to grab attention of those watching TV is to simply use product placement as a tool to subconsciously weigh in on viewers. Other ways to win over consumers is to stick with traditional methods or more interactive methods such as using social media, websites, etc. These ways are way less expensive and get the same message across.
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