• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, December 1, 2015

A gloomy observer might point to sales results from Thanksgiving Weekend and suggest retailers buy themselves a “What To Do For Your Next Career” kit for Christmas. After all, RetailNext estimates in-store sales sank 4.7% over Thanksgiving Weekend and that traffic fell 5.1%. But the San Jose, Calif.-based consultancy is looking at it another way.

“Brick and mortar is far from dead, and consumers love going into stores,” says Shelley E. Kohan, VP of retail consulting. "Those declining sales and traffic numbers are only part of the story.” She tells Marketing Daily that “holiday creep,” spreading sales out over a longer period, “demonstrates how smart and empowered this shopper has become. And the markdowns and discounting were not as pronounced as we’ve seen in other years.”

Besides, she points out, the weekend’s sales declines were better than the preceding five months, and the dip in traffic was only half of the monthly declines reported earlier in the year. And sales-per-shopper actually rose 0.3% over the weekend. Sales in the Midwest and Northeastern region were strongest.

Conversion rates fell a little more than she expected, though. “Shoppers have really reinvented this weekend as a month-long event, and while they were going into stores, they are so empowered that they have less of a commitment to actually purchasing anything. They know what’s on sale, and what’s going to be on sale.”

But she says people’s ease in switching from digital to physical channels puts stores on notice. “If you can’t create an engaging, differentiated experience for them, they will find a way to shop online instead.”

And the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) says the numbers reflect the new reality of “click and collect” retail. It points out that nearly half of the people who shopped on Thanksgiving and Black Friday spent more than they did at the same time last year, and 80% made a purchase at a physical store. On Black Friday, 32% bought something online, and then headed to the store to retrieve it. And 58% made additional purchases when they went to the store for pickup.

It says the average person who shopped on either Thanksgiving, Black Friday or both spent $557 in the two-day period, including $245 in physical stores, $120 with online-only retailers, $110 online via retailers with a physical presence, for items shipping to their home, and $82 online, with retailers with a physical presence, on items they could pick up in store.

“The use of ‘click and collect’ this Thanksgiving holiday weekend highlights the growing popularity of omnichannel shopping,” says Jesse Tron, ICSC spokesperson, in its report. “Even with competition from online retailers, the physical store continues to play a central role in the shopping experience, and this is not expected to change.”