Nets: Time To Shift Debate, Nielsen Introduces SAAs

A group of major broadcast networks led by NBC--and most likely including CBS, Fox, and the WB--next week plans to unveil its official response to Madison Avenue's position on time-shifted TV audiences, and a new type of Nielsen rating may be at the center of it. Instead of seeing time-shifting--the playback of recorded programming--as a negative factor that should be deducted from official TV ratings estimates, the networks will begin to position it as a positive that is adding more opportunities to see advertisers' commercials.

The new Nielsen ratings, called Shifted Average Audience estimates, or SAAs, are likely to stir the debate even more. Major ad agencies have been taking the position that ratings for programs recorded on DVRs should be deducted, not included in their negotiations with the networks. Some agencies have even begun using the shift, which Nielsen will make on Dec. 26, to try and re-negotiate other long-standing issues concerning TV ratings, including how they treat VCR audiences and possibly even "commercial ratings" (see related story in today's MDN). The SAAs, which Nielsen describes as a "new statistic," go beyond the initial playback of a DVR-recorded show to include all subsequent playbacks. Nielsen describes them as being similar to the so-called GAA ratings, or gross average audience estimates developed for the TV syndication business, where the same episode of a syndicated TV show may air on a station or stations several times a week, yielding a gross rating that is higher than the initial one. GAAs are an accepted form of currency for ad deals in the TV syndication business.

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"The introduction of a Shifted AA, SAA, would produce similar numbers to the Gross Average Audience GAA statistic but be specifically tailored to deal with the complexities of the DVR audience," says Nielsen in a report it's begun circulating with some clients in the past couple of weeks. "The resulting SAA would be a summary of all minutes viewed by the viewing audience. For example, if a specific home watches a given [minute of programming] of a program more than once, each minute would be credited toward the SAA minutes for the given program."

The SAAs are part of a bigger proposal Nielsen is pitching for an array of new time-shifted viewing, or "TSV" products that may also include analyses of so-called "trick" viewing features enabled by DVRs, such as fast-forwarding, pausing, slow-motion, and replaying within an episode.

Details of the broadcast networks' announcement next week, meanwhile, were still sketchy at press time. One network executive said that's because the initiative, which is being driven by NBC research chief Alan Wurtzel, is still trying to build a coalition among the networks. CBS research chief Dave Poltrack is believed to be on board, and Fox and The WB also are said to support the effort, though ABC inexplicably may not be. That's interesting, because ABC and its parent Walt Disney Co. appear to be increasingly breaking ranks from other broadcasters in their position concerning non-linear distribution. It was Disney, armed with top-rated ABC prime-time shows "Desperate Housewives" and "Lost," that introduced the video iPod distribution model several weeks ago and woke up both Hollywood and Madison Avenue in the process.

"That's true," confirmed a network executive when asked about the plan by MDN. While he would not divulge details, he said it would be the broadcasters' major response to Madison Avenue on the subject, and would also involve new research that seeks to dispel "myths and misconceptions" about DVRs. "It will be a presentation of up-to-date data on what we know about DVRs. There's a lot of misunderstanding and urban legends floating around out there. The idea is to bring it up-to-date with what we actually know," he said, adding that the position would be an "additive" one, not, as Madison Avenue has suggested, deductive.

However, given the pace of change in TV distribution platforms, this may be just the beginning, not the end, of a debate. Among the platforms alluded to in Nielsen's TSV pitch are: video games, VCR playback, audio/video-only, Internet use, DVR playback, DVD playback, VCR record, and AOT, which stands for "All Other Tuning" of un-encoded viewing that is normally included in Nielsen's estimates for households using television.

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