"We forecast that broadcast television will retain its dominant share of budget allocations this year, holding essentially flat at approximately 56 percent of total expenditures," writes Brian Wieser, vice president and director of industry analysis at Magna, in the white paper released to clients and members of the press on Tuesday. "The dominant belief is that television remains the single most effective medium to convey candidates' messages to voters, and as a result we expect little change to this tactic."
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While TV will continue to dominate the mix, Wieser predicts direct mail and online media will grow in importance as campaign organizations become more sophisticated in their ability to target contributors and voters. In fact, Magna predicts that a 5 percent rise in political donations, coupled with the fact that an unprecedented number of independently wealthy candidates are seeking political offices, will contribute to political spending levels in 2006 that will push political ad spending up to $2.9 billion in 2006, a 10 percent increase over the last presidential election season in 2004. TV will account for 56 percent of total expenditures, with about $1.655 billion going to local TV outlets.
Wieser, who is well-regarded for the precision of his forecasts, also predicted that newspapers would hold on to their historical share of political ad budgets, but that radio and outdoor media would likely erode.
Wieser also predicts political candidates will experiment with a variety of new media including digital video recorder "showcases," online social networks and podcasting in an effort to target and segment potential voters and donors, but that total spending among these emerging media will be "too small to forecast."