• by Joe Mandese , February 1, 2006

Despite being a so-called "off year" election, Magna Global USA is warning clients that 2006 is likely to reap record levels of political ad spending that could put acute pressure on key markets including New York, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Washington states, and advising them to either maintain "flexibility" or lock up inventory in advance of the political ad buying spree. The agency, the centralized media negotiating unit for Interpublic agencies like Initiative and Universal McCann, also predicts that new media would further encroach on traditional media during the 2006 political season, but that TV would remain the dominant portion of political advertising budgets.

"We forecast that broadcast television will retain its dominant share of budget allocations this year, holding essentially flat at approximately 56 percent of total expenditures," writes Brian Wieser, vice president and director of industry analysis at Magna, in the white paper released to clients and members of the press on Tuesday. "The dominant belief is that television remains the single most effective medium to convey candidates' messages to voters, and as a result we expect little change to this tactic."

While TV will continue to dominate the mix, Wieser predicts direct mail and online media will grow in importance as campaign organizations become more sophisticated in their ability to target contributors and voters. In fact, Magna predicts that a 5 percent rise in political donations, coupled with the fact that an unprecedented number of independently wealthy candidates are seeking political offices, will contribute to political spending levels in 2006 that will push political ad spending up to $2.9 billion in 2006, a 10 percent increase over the last presidential election season in 2004. TV will account for 56 percent of total expenditures, with about $1.655 billion going to local TV outlets.

Wieser, who is well-regarded for the precision of his forecasts, also predicted that newspapers would hold on to their historical share of political ad budgets, but that radio and outdoor media would likely erode.

Wieser also predicts political candidates will experiment with a variety of new media including digital video recorder "showcases," online social networks and podcasting in an effort to target and segment potential voters and donors, but that total spending among these emerging media will be "too small to forecast."