• by Wayne Friedman , October 12, 2006

The major broadcast networks have a long history of spinning Nielsen TV ratings to highlight their strengths and downplay their weak spots, but with multiple streams of "live" and delayed viewing data now flowing through the marketplace, the practice is beginning to create confusion - especially for advertisers and media buyers. While virtually all network advertisers struck their upfront ad deals for the 2006-07 season based on "live" only ratings, the networks are spinning data showing higher "live" plus same day of delayed viewing ratings to TV critics and trade journalists.

The practice is creating confusion in the marketplace, say agency executives, because "live" ratings excluding the delayed viewing data is the actual currency used by advertisers that buy TV time.

The networks started spinning "live" plus same day ratings back in January, shortly after Nielsen began releasing three streams of ratings data: "live" only, "live" plus same day of DVR playback and "live" plus seven days of DVR playback.

"The business press should report stories using live-only ratings," asserts Steve Sternberg, executive vice president, director of audience analysis for Magna Global USA. He has sent emails to various publications. "'Live' [only] ratings are still the currency; that's what we report to our clients."

Lyle Schwartz, senior vice president, corporate research director for Mediaedge: cia, says: "There could be confusion of over different sets of numbers," despite good agency-client communication.

For example, a client could read that "Grey's Anatomy" might be doing a 9.7 adults 18-49 rating. That would be only for a "live plus same day" ratings. But that client's post analysis would just say a 9.0 rating for "live" only ratings. For the first three weeks of the season, "Desperate Housewives" has shown a five-tenths rating point gain from "live plus same day" data--going to a 8.9 from a 8.5 for just "live." Those differences translate into lost potential revenue.

As MediaDailyNews reported yesterday ("Live Ratings Kill Network Ad Yield, Hundreds Of Millions Sacrificed"), "live plus same day" ratings give every network a one-tenth of rating point improvement in prime time. In terms of ad revenue, estimates are that this comes to some $400 million per year.

Now, 10 months into Nielsen Media Research supplying three different streams of ratings data, the "live plus same day" has become the most dominant mode with network executives, and especially on the Nielsen Web site.

Network executives say there is nothing wrong with releasing "live plus same day" data. "We are reporting the facts," says Dana McClintock, senior vice president of communications for CBS Corp. "They don't have to be in lockstep. We can release data on who is watching the show this way. It doesn't have anything to do with how we sell it."

Concerning "live plus same day" data, an NBC spokeswoman said: "It's the most accurate of the two measures available on a daily basis." A Fox spokeswoman had no comment. ABC executives did not have comments by press time.

It was anticipated in January--when Nielsen started releasing "live plus same day" ratings, and "live plus seven day" ratings, in addition to its regular live ratings--that during the coming upfront market, the issue would be resolved. The most likely scenario was that "live plus same day" data would be the currency.

ABC stuck its nose headlong into the subject during pre-upfront negotiations, asking that advertisers pay for the extra DVR playback viewers. Other networks also backed those efforts. But media agencies rebuffed the networks--and upfront deals were sold on "live" only data. It's not surprising, then, that networks would continue to push "live plus same day" ratings.

There are other concerns. "The hard part is looking at the year-to-year comparisons," says Mediaedge's Schwartz. "Now, there are [many] sets of numbers." For example, looking at all the live plus DVR playback over seven days, TV usage is down 2 percent so far this season. Analyzing live-only usage this year, versus last year's live only usage, shows a worse scenario: down 4 percent.

In the late 1980s, and throughout most of the Nineties, the consumer and business press reported on TV program households' ratings and shares. In the late Nineties, this changed, as journalists reported more on total average viewers and adult 18-49 viewers--the primary ad selling demographic. Some consumer news organizations, such as Associated Press, still use just viewership data, leaving out business demographic information.

"I don't have any problem with the consumer press," says Sternberg. He says it is fair to judge a program's overall viewership performance using DVR playback data--but not when looking at that program from a business or ad point of view.