• by Mark Walsh  @markfwal, January 6, 2009

More than 140 million U.S. consumers will be paying for mobile broadband services in 2013--up from 46 million in 2008, according to a new study by Parks Associates.

The research firm also predicts in its "Mobile Broadband: Beyond the Cell Phone" report that the number of smartphones sold in five years will more than triple to 60 million as multimedia devices go mainstream.

"Consumers will grow more comfortable with mobile broadband, and the service will become part of their daily lives, as they will be able to surf the Web, play games, share pictures, and connect via social networks from anywhere," said Anton Denissov, a research analyst at Parks Associates.

He noted that the smartphone sales have remained strong this year despite the recession, underscoring their allure as both status symbols and utilities. "We haven't seen the slowdown," said Denissov. "The smartphone market is either a lagging indicator or is more recession-resistant."

Apple, for instance, easily exceeded analyst expectations by selling nearly 7 million iPhone 3G devices in its fiscal third quarter. And BlackBerry maker Research in Motion last month reported record third-quarter sales, partly due to carriers stocking up on the new touchscreen Storm and high-resolution Bold models.

But Denissov acknowledged that demand could diminish this year as the downturn lingers. "It's safe to say there will be an impact," he said. Under what Parks Associates terms a "realistic" scenario, smartphone sales will grow by only 1 million in 2009 to 19 million. Most of the growth will come in the out years.

The number of mobile broadband users this year is expected to grow faster--by about 20%, to 56 million. That figure includes users of both subscription-based and a-la-carte mobile services.

While the growing audience for mobile media will attract the interest of marketers, Denissov agrees with other analysts that mobile advertising is still in its infancy. "A lot of challenges remain," he said. "There are issues around technology and interoperability in terms of different carriers and different handsets. Will an ad show properly on both an iPhone and a BlackBerry?"

A research report released by J.P. Morgan Monday on Internet trends in 2009 suggested that mobile advertising will be hit especially hard by a pullback on experimental ad spending caused by the downturn.

But Denissov said advertising could eventually become an important revenue stream to help cover the costs of a growing volume of mobile data traffic. "Over time that's going to start clogging up carrier networks and leading to service degradations," he said. "The service provider basically gets a flat fee, so monetization of content is going to be one of key elements in how the mobile market evolves."