• by Mark Walsh  @markfwal, April 28, 2009

TV sales executives and media buyers invoked the term "unprecedented" to describe economic conditions surrounding the upfront during a panel discussion on the upcoming TV buying season Tuesday.

 

Because of the uncertain climate, network sales and agency execs gathered at Media Magazine's 2009 Outfront conference in New York would only predict that the upfront will involve a good deal of negotiation and a focus on flexibility.

"I don't think any of us can sit here and tell you what's going to happen. You can't look at historical precedents," said Bruce Lefkowitz, executive vice president, Fox Cable Entertainment Networks. He added that making predictions is especially difficult because the scatter market will extend deal-making into early 2010.

A downward pressure on pricing caused by the broader economic problems was highlighted by media buyers. "No one goes into a store anymore and pays retail," noted Donna Speciale, president, investment and activation, MediaVest USA. "This is the same thing. Advertisers are looking at what's going on. [They] want to get the right value and have a proper perspective with what's going on in the economy."

Mike Shaw, president, sales and marketing at ABC Television Network, brushed aside the idea of catering to cash-strapped consumers with lower-tier media buys. He said marketers have become especially focused on buying prime-time ABC inventory as a way to reach the high-income viewers who are still buying brands.

"For the first time, we're really seeing major packaged-goods companies compete against private-label $2 toothpaste," he said. That's because the portion of the audience with households making less than $50,000 a year are shifting away from brands to save money. Shaw said that any marketers targeting that segment "are wasting money this year in television."

Agency executives maintained that no programming across dayparts and broadcast and cable networks was exempt from the challenging business environment. "Nothing is a must-buy," said Shari Cohen, co-head of Mindshare Exchange. "We do see value in some audiences more than others, but it has to be the right price."

Panelists also speculated on the outlook for Jay Leno's new 10 p.m. time slot next season. "What Leno could possibly do could be a positive for NBC," said Speciale. "Kudos to Jeff [Zucker] for doing something different and knowing he has to lower costs. It looks like a good experiment."

Cohen agreed that the high-risk move could drive more ad dollars to NBC and help the "ratings-challenged" network. ABC's Shaw, however, wasn't as optimistic. "It gives us a little better chance with our dramas to snag a little more audience than we would have otherwise," he said.