• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, August 31, 2009

Only a third of the new prime-time series that will debut next month on the major broadcast networks have good prospects of succeeding, according to the latest in a series of "pre-season" reports being issued by long-time Madison Avenue researcher and programming analyst Steve Sternberg.

Sternberg, who had been he top researcher in Interpublic's Magna unit, identified seven of 21 new prime-time series as having "the best" chance of success, nine as "borderline," and five as outright "busts."

Sternberg did not indicate what Nielsen ratings threshold the new series would meet to fall in each category, but he said his determinations were based on the quality of their pilot episodes.

Two of the likely winners ("Flash Forward" and "Modern Family") are on ABC, two ("NCIS: Los Angeles" and "The Good Wife") are on CBS, and one each are on Fox ("Glee"), NBC ("Community"), and CW ("The Vampire Diaries").

Among the "borderlines" is NBC's new 10 p.m. strip series starring former "Tonight Show" host Jay Leno, which is a lynchpin of the peacock network's new prime-time strategy.

"Who knows," Sternberg mused. "Depending on nightly guests, [it] could occasionally finish second in time slot - particularly opposite network repeats on ABC and CBS. If he generates ratings higher than he got in late night, it should be considered a hit."