• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, December 15, 2009

Although forecasts have been predicting a downbeat performance for consumer electronics this holiday season, shoppers may be proving them wrong: Best Buy reported stronger results, and revised its earnings projections. And a new survey shows an unexpected jump in consumer electronic sales in all stores.

The new survey, from America's Research Group and UBS, reports that a sudden stampede toward flat-panel TV sets may buoy overall holiday results. As a result, ARG is now projecting that holiday sales will fall just 1.2% this holiday season, versus the earlier prediction of 2.9%.

The Charleston, S.C.-based research company says the rush was triggered by flat-panel TV sets hitting the $499 price point, and says the same thing happened 20 years ago, when VCRs became available at $249. The survey reports that for the first time in 25 years, "electronics are virtually tied with toys as the top Christmas gift item."

Some 30% of those surveyed say they plan to buy electronics, and 30.8% plan to buy toys. Last year at this time, the survey found that only 23.7% named electronics, and "electronics" and 33.8% "toys."

That enthusiasm is evident in third-quarter results just released by Best Buy Co. The Minneapolis-based retailer says its earnings shot up to $227 million, compared with $52 million for the prior-year period. And revenue increased 5% percent to $12 billion, compared with revenue of $11.5 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2009, including the addition of some 130 new stores and a same-store sales gain of 1.7%.

In the U.S., comparable-store sales increased 4.6 % in the quarter, increasing with each month: In November alone, comparable-store sales gained 8.4%. Online sales for the quarter are up 20%.

The company says sales gains in notebook computers, flat-panel televisions, mobile phones and appliances were partially offset by decreases in gaming, movies and music.

And while it expects its profit margins to fall somewhat in the fourth quarter because of lower TV prices, the company increased its guidance for the full year. "Our revenue and earnings performance in the fiscal third quarter was strong considering the continuing challenges on overall consumer spending in the retail environment," says EVP/CFO Jim Muehlbauer in a statement.

"We are pleased with the continued stabilization of store traffic and our significant share growth in the third fiscal quarter. While a large portion of the key holiday selling season remains ahead and consumers are clearly being very conscious of what they buy and from whom they make purchases, the trends we experienced in the third quarter continue to provide encouragement about what lies ahead in the balance of the fiscal year."