Forecast: TV Regains Hefty Ad Levels

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Television advertising revenues will regain their pre-recession levels next year, with Internet advertising having little to no effect on it.

TV ad dollars, which hit $59.0 billion at the end of 2010, will climb to $64.5 billion next year. Last year's strong growth over a weak recessionary market's 2009 was 9.7%. This year, the growth -- at 2.5% -- will be more modest, reaching $60.5 billion. Internet advertising, the second-biggest ad category, will reach $28.5 billon by the end of 2011.

"TV advertising is on course to return to pre-recession levels," stated Geoff Ramsey, CEO and co-founder of eMarketer. "While the growth of online advertising has been robust, it hasn't stopped brand advertisers from keeping the bulk of their budgets flowing through TV sets."

Overall, the U.S. ad market will take longer to recover to get back to those 2007 levels, with dollars inching up by just 1% this year, landing at $154.6 billion by the end of 2011.

One major reason is that newspapers and magazines will continue to decline in the years to come, according to eMarketer. Newspapers will drop to $21.4 billion by the end of 2011 -- from $22.8 billion in 2010. They will be at $20.7 billion in 2012 and $20.2 billion in 2013. Magazines are estimated to be at $13.9 billion in 2011, down from $14.7 billion last year. Then the group will drop to $13.2 billion in 2012 and $12.6 billion in 2013.

Television retains the greatest share of U.S. major media ad spending, at 39.1% this year. Internet advertising has the second-biggest share at 18.4%, followed by newspapers at 13.9%; radio at 10.1%; magazines at 9.0%; directories at 4.5%; and outdoor at 4.2%.

Internet advertising -- now more than newspaper and magazine revenues combined -- is projected to see the quickest growth of any media, rising in its market share of 15.4% in 2009 to 25.6% in 2015.

 

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