Forecaster Projects 2.7% 2012 U.S. Ad Growth

by , Feb 27, 2012, 2:33 PM
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Arrow-upU.S. advertising spending will grow 2.7%, to $152.1 billion, this year, forecasts Strategy Analytics. That represents a significant improvement over last year’s 0.6% U.S. growth.

However, global and European advertising growth for 2012 is expected to be more robust: 4.9% worldwide (to $465.5 billion) and 3.7% in Europe (to $136.3 billion).

The year’s growth drivers include the European football championships and Japan’s continuing recovery from its earthquake, as well as the Olympics and the U.S. presidential election, says Ed Barton, director of digital media strategies for Strategy Analytics.

The firm projects that global ad spending will surpass $500 billion by 2014.

Globally, 2012 growth projections by media include: online media will gain 12.8%, to $83.2 billion (18% of total advertising spending); television will gain 5%, to $188.5 billion (40.5% of total); print will gain 0.5% (26.4% of total); and other traditional media will gain 4.1% (15.2% of total).

In the U.S., the projections are 6.7% for online (18% of total), 3.7% for TV (41% of total); -1.5% for print (24.1% of total), and 2.9% for other traditional media (16.8% of total).

Overall spending on TV remains higher in the U.S. than in other countries (41% versus 34.5% in Europe). The Internet currently accounts for a smaller share in the U.S. than in other countries, but is growing rapidly, and is projected to overtake U.S. print advertising in 2016 -- a year ahead of the same development on a global basis, notes Barton.

In Europe, the media projections are Internet, 11.7%; television, 3.4%; print, 0.1%; and other traditional media, 2.4%.

Assuming that Europe can build its way out of its current uncertainty, Strategy expects to see ad spending in Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal to remain flat to negative for the long term, and the U.K., Germany and France to see slow growth, with occasional boosts from drivers such as major sports events.

Growth, at lower spending levels, is likely to come from Eastern and Central Europe (Turkey, Russia) and ongoing gains in online -- particularly video and social networking.

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