• by Steve McClellan  @mp_mcclellan, March 14, 2012

Given gradually improving economic indicators, media shop Zenith Optimedia has revised its forecast for ad spending in the U.S. this year slightly upward. The new prediction, issued late Tuesday, calls for overall spending on major media to reach nearly $160 billion, up 3.6%. That’s a tenth of a percent higher than the shop predicted in December when it issued its first detailed forecast for 2012.

The shop is now also slightly more optimistic about the prospects for global ad spending. Its revised global forecast predicts a 4.8% gain overall to $489.3 million.

In the U.S., Zenith noted GDP growth, recent improvement in the consumer confidence index and employment gains. Those developments, as well as its “knowledge of advertiser plans for the upcoming season,” were key factors in the decision to raise the U.S. estimate, ZO stated in its revised forecast report.

The global revision, ZO said, is attributable to two factors -- including “signs that large companies are investing more in marketing to drive growth, and a reduced risk of disastrous collapse in the Eurozone, although its short-term economic performance has deteriorated.”

When marketing services such as direct mail, telemarketing and event sponsorship are thrown into the mix, ZO predicted  total measured media spending in the U.S. this year would rise 3.2% to just over $368.1 billion. The shop did not release any marketing services data related to the global outlook. 

In the U.S., the ZO report added that TV dollars are moving from network to cable and "this trend will likely continue." It noted that “print will continue to suffer as a result of expanding digital media," noting that magazines are likely to benefit from eReaders and tablets as those devices gain further traction in the marketplace.

By media in the U.S., ZO predicted that the Internet would show the largest gains -- up 17.8%, followed by cable TV, up 10%. Sectors expected to see decreases in spending this year include newspapers, down 8%; magazines, down 3%; syndication TV, down 12%, and network TV, down 1%.

On the global front, ZO reduced its 2012 spending growth forecast for Western Europe to 1.5%, or $103.5 billion, from 2%. The shop cited the region’s continuing economic instability. While a collapse of the region’s economy seems less likely, “in the short term, Europe’s real economic performance has deteriorated,” the ZO report stated. “The Eurozone is now almost certainly in recession.” 

ZO upgraded its forecast for the Asia-Pacific region slightly, now predicting spending of nearly $133 billion, up 7.4%. In December, its prediction for the region was 7.2%. 

The strongest region, per the report, is Latin America, where the spending forecast was upgraded by more than 3 percentage points to 9.2% to nearly $39 billion, “as confidence grows that the its strong economic growth will be maintained.”