Warc has reduced its projections for 2013 global advertising spending since its last Consensus Ad Forecast, released in August 2012.
The marketing intelligence service now projects that total, all-medium global advertising spending will increase by 4% this year, down 0.9 percentage points from August’s forecast.
However, for 2014, Warc projects that total spending growth will pick up to 5.5%.
Total 2013 U.S. advertising spend is now projected to grow by 2.2%, down by 0.1 percentage point from the August projection.
Of the 13 markets covered in the report, 11 are forecast to see growth this year (the exceptions are Spain and Italy). However, the growth forecasts for all but Brazil have been lowered since August.
The largest 2013 all-media growth rates are projected for Russia, China and Brazil: 12.3%, 10.9% and 9.8%, respectively. Compared to August, the projections are down by 0.3% and 3.1% for Russia and China, respectively, and up 0.5% for Brazil. These markets also are expected to maintain high levels of growth in 2014.
Spain and Italy are now projected to see declines of -2.8% and -1.1%, respectively (down by 4.1% and 2.3%, respectively, versus August’s projections). However, these markets are expected to return to growth in 2014.
Looking at the by-medium 2013 forecast, the Internet is the only medium projected to show growth in all 13 markets. However, the Net’s 13.8% global growth projection is down 0.6% since August.
Projected global growth rates for other media this year (followed by their +/- percentage points versus the August projections): cinema: +3.8% (-2.4% versus August projection); TV, +3.2% (-1.1%); out-of-home, +2.9% (-1.8%); radio, +2% (-0.9%); magazines, -2.5% (-1.7%); and newspapers, -2.7% (-1.5%).
Projected by-medium 2013 growth rates in the U.S. are: Internet, +12.8%; cinema, +5%; out-of-home, +3.2%; radio, +0.5%; TV, +0.3%; magazines, -4%; and newspapers, -6.7%.
Warc’s Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of ad spend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc’s own team and other industry bodies.