The new projection is roughly in line with a recent e-commerce spending estimate from comScore, monitoring the online behavior of 2 million consumers. Last month, it said second quarter 2012 e-commerce spending increased 15.5% year over year; for the fourth quarter of 2012, the most recent holiday shopping period, comScore says online spending increased 14% year over year, compared with 15% for the entire year 2012. And, the U.S. Commerce Department, making its estimates based on quarterly surveys of U.S. retailers, says Q2 online spending increased 18.4% year over year in the second quarter.
The holiday e-commerce growth forecast by eMarketer represents the smallest quarterly gain for online spending in 2013. Year-over-year e-commerce growth in the first quarter of 2013 reached about 16.3%.
eMarketer vice president, Clark Fredricksen, says "… previous quarters of the year are expected to have higher growth rates than the fourth quarter…”
Mobile commerce will account for nearly 16%, or $41.68 billion, of the $262.30 billion that online shoppers are expected to spend this year in the United States, the report says. Earlier this year, eMarketer pegged the m-commerce share at 15%.
Consumers will do most of their mobile buying on tablets, the report adds. The devices will account for 62.5%, or $26.05 billion, of U.S. m-commerce this year, up from 56.2% last year. By 2017, tablets’ share will increase to 73%.
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